承德初霜冻天气概念模型及其检验  

The First-Frost Conceptual Prediction Model for Chengde and Its Test

作　　者：彭九慧 王多[2] 陆倩 杨庆红 

机构地区：[1]承德市气象局,河北承德067000 [2]河北民族师范学院,河北承德067000

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2016年第3期15-20,共6页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：河北省气象局2013年科研项目"初霜冻预报技术研究"(13ky26)资助

摘　　要：应用常规观测资料与NCEP1°×1°再分析资料,对承德市各县区初霜的时空分布特征及南北县区初霜出现时间的稳定性进行了分析,在对117个初霜环流形势分析的基础上,建立了初霜预报的天气概念模型;筛选因子,分县区确立了预报指标;采用概率、指标、数值预报产品相结合的方法及概率区间取值法建立了分县区初霜预报模型;检验表明,该模型对于中重度初霜冻预报准确率可达95%以上,对轻度初霜的预报准确率可达68%以上,无漏报出现。Using the conventional observation data and the NCEP1°×1° reanalysis data, in this study the temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of the first frost in the counties in Chengde and the temporal stability of the first frost in the north and south counties were analyzed. Based on analysis of the circulation of 117 first-frost cases, the first-frost conceptual prediction model was set up; early frost forecast indicators were established with filtering factors ; and the first frost forecast model for every county was established using method of combining probability, index and the numerical forecast products, and probability interval value method. Test shows that forecast accuracy of the model for the moderate or severe first frost can reach more than 95%, the accuracy of forecasting for weak first frost can reach more than 68% without omission.

关 键 词：绝对变率 概念模型 预报指标 初霜指数 

分 类 号：P457.31[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]