阿勒泰地区强降雪灾害风险研究  

The Research of Heavy Snowstorm Risk in Altay

作　　者：李博渊 王小号[2] 

机构地区：[1]青河县气象局,新疆青河836200 [2]塔城地区气象局,新疆塔城834700

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2016年第3期47-52,共6页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201425);中国沙漠气象科学研究基金(Sqj2013008)共同资助

摘　　要：强降雪是阿勒泰地区常见的灾害性天气之一。基于1961—2013年11月至次年3月该地区7个气象观测站逐日降雪量和积雪深度资料,定义了强降雪特征量,运用信息扩散理论等方法研究了该地区强降雪特征量的异常特征及风险区划。结果表明,阿勒泰地区2009年冬季雪灾为全区型、2010年为西部型异常雪灾年。强降雪频次异常偏高年,福海和青河出现1a、其它各县市出现了2~3 a;强降雪量异常偏多年,地区北部和东部各县市出现1a,西部和南部各县出现2 a。阿勒泰地区各县市强降雪风险分析结果表明,地区强降雪高风险区在阿勒泰市以及富蕴县,青河县为中风险区,哈巴河县、吉木乃县为低风险区,布尔津县和福海县为极端低风险区。Heavy snowstorm is one of the common disastrous weather. We defined the characteristic quantity of heavy snowstorm through analyzing the daily precipitation data, snow depth data of 7 observation stations from November of the year to March of the next year during 1961-2013. Using information diffusion theory, we studied the anomaly and risk zoning of heavy snowstorm characteristic quantity in the research area. The results are showed as follows. In the winter of 2009 the whole area and in the winter of 2010 the western area caused abnormal snow years in Ahay. Anomalous years of heavy snowfall occurrence was 1 in Fuhai and Qinghe station, while it was 2 or 3 in the other stations., which also can be concluded in the north and east part of Altay it appeared 1, and in the west and the south part it was 2. The analysis result for risk shows that Altay and Fuyun are high risk area; Qinghe is mid risk area; Habahe and Jimunai are low risk regions; Burjin and Fuhai are absolutely low risk regions.

关 键 词：强降雪特征量 信息扩散理论 风险区划 阿勒泰 

分 类 号：S427[农业科学—植物保护]