不同分型厄尔尼诺事件对新疆汛期降水的影响  

El Nino Events of Different Types and Their Impact on the Flood Season Precipitation in Xinjiang

作　　者：徐洁[1] 王舒[1] 肖高翔 

机构地区：[1]新疆气象服务中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2016年第3期53-58,共6页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：新疆气象局2015年面上课题(2015MS07)

摘　　要：基于近49 a新疆102个站点汛期降水资料,分析了东部型、中部型、混合型厄尔尼诺事件对新疆当年及次年汛期降水的影响。得出以下结论:东部型厄尔尼诺事件对新疆当年及次年汛期降水影响负距平占75%;中部型厄尔尼诺事件对新疆当年汛期的影响取决于Nino峰值大小,次年影响新疆汛期降水偏多率为100%;混合型厄尔尼诺事件对新疆当年及次年汛期降水影响偏多年份占75%。Nino峰值与相应年份汛期降水距平较为显著,且对新疆各地汛期降水影响不同。用t检验分析了三种类型厄尔尼诺对新疆汛期降水的响应关系,结果表明,新疆大部分地区汛期降水与厄尔尼诺关系显著,t检验<0.01,其中东部型厄尔尼诺事件次年及混合型厄尔尼诺次年T<0.001。Based on the flood season precipitation from 102 meteorological stations during 1961- 2009,we analyzed the impact of different E1 Nino types （Eastern Pacific type, Central Pacific type and Mixed type） on the flood season precipitation in Xinjiang . The results showed that the current and flowing flood season precipitation impact of Eastern Pacific type was negative, and the negative anomaly accounted for 75%. The current flood season precipitation impact of Central Pacific type was depended on Nino,aU the flowing flood season precipitation was increasing, the impact of Mixed Pacific type E1 Nino on current and flowing flood season precipitation anomalies was positive, and the positive anomaly accounted for 75%. The peak value of Nino was significantly correlated precipitation, and has different impacts on flood season precipitation of state. The response relationship between E1 Nino and the flood season precipitation in Xinjiang was analyzed with T- test. The result shows that the response relationship between the flood season precipitation and the E1 Nino is significant, and the t-test value was less than 0.01, the T value of the current Eastern Pacific type and flowing Mixed Pacific type E1 Nino was less than 0.001.

关 键 词：不同分型 厄尔尼诺 汛期 降水 新疆 

分 类 号：P426.52[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]