应用气象数值预报技术提高输电线路动态载流量能力  

Application of Meteorological Numerical Forecast Technology for Improving Transmission Line Capability

作　　者：周海松[1] 陈哲[2] 张健 丁雨恒[1] 赵琨[1] 

机构地区：[1]国网电力科学研究院,江苏省南京市210000 [2]江苏省电力公司电力科学研究院,江苏省南京市211100 [3]太湖流域管理局,上海市虹口区200080

出　　处：《电网技术》2016年第7期2175-2178,共4页Power System Technology

摘　　要：针对在安全条件下输电线路的最大载流量计算问题,提出一种基于气象数值网格点预报产品的输电线路最大载流量预测值计算方法。该方法首先使用中尺度WRF（weather research and forecasting model）模式输出的气象数值预报网格点映射长距离输电线路计算基准点的1~36 h环境预报值,然后利用输电线路热平衡方程计算线路计算基准点最大载流量预测值,并推出整条线路最大载流量预测值,实现了长距离输电线路1-36 h最大载流量预测值的计算。计算结果表明,在完全满足输电线路安全条件下,使用该方法调度的输电线路载流容量将比日常调度载流容量有大幅度提高,即使是在全年最高峰的负载条件下,该方法也有30%左右的优化空间,有效解决了输电线路安全增容、电网优化调度策略等难题。该方法同时具有预测时间粒度小、预见期长、可适用跨区域大范围电网等特点。Aiming at maximum carrying capacity calculation of electric transmission line under safety conditions, this article proposes a method for maximum flow calculation of electric transmission line based on meteorological numerical grid point prediction product. This method firstly uses meteorological numerical value output from mesoscale weather research and forecasting model（WRF） mode to forecast 1-36 h environment values of calculation grid points mapping long-distance transmission line, and then utilizes heat balance equation of electrical transmission line to calculate predicted maximum carrying capacity values of transmission line calculation datum point, and calculates predicted maximum carrying capacity value of whole line, to realize calculation of predicted 1-36 h maximum carrying capacity value of transmission line. According to calculation result, when fully meeting safety conditions of electric transmission line, transmission line current carrying capacity dispatched with this method is greatly increased for daily dispatched current carrying capacity. Even in condition of yearly peak loading, this method has about 30% optimizing space. This effectively solves problems such as transmission line safe capacity increase and power grid optimal operation strategy. This method, with advantages of small predicting time granularity and long forecast period, is applicable to trans-regional large scale grid.

关 键 词：电力系统 数值网格点预报 热平衡方程 载流量 

分 类 号：TM72[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]