宏观经济生产绩效视野中的劳动力供给研究——兼析我国二胎政策的经济基础  

A Study on Labor Supply from the Perspective of Macroeconomic Production Performance——And An Analysis of Economic Foundation of the Two-Child Policy in China

作　　者：马赞甫[1] 刘妍珺[2] 

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学贵州省经济系统仿真重点实验室,贵州贵阳550025 [2]贵州财经大学数学与统计学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《西南石油大学学报（社会科学版）》2016年第4期14-21,共8页Journal of Southwest Petroleum University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学基金项目"生产函数的DEA估计--基于包络曲线的视角"(12YJC790140);国家社会科学基金项目"我国劳动资本分配格局研究"(12BJY012)

摘　　要：我国国民经济生产中的劳动力投入具有中性指标属性,且随指标数量的变化而发生属性转换。利用数据三分类绩效评价标准的数据包络分析方法评价我国1978—2014年间的宏观经济生产绩效,考察我国劳动力的供求状况,采用定量方式识别我国劳动力市场供求的变化状况。研究发现,若经济总量较小,人均资本存量较低,劳动力需求相应较少,往往导致劳动力过剩现象,反之则出现劳动力供不应求状况。实证结果表明,我国宏观经济生产具有明显的阶段特征,其中:1978—1994年间为第一阶段,而1995—2014年则为第二阶段。换言之,我国劳动力供给状况在1994年前后出现明显区别,1994年以前表现为供过于求;而1994年以后,在经济增长与人口计划生育双重影响下,我国人均资本存量增长迅猛,劳动力供求状况发生根本性变化,从而构成国家实施二胎人口政策的经济基础。The attribute of labor input indicator in China＇s national economy production is a neutral indicator,which converts with the change of the number of indicators. China＇s macroeconomic performance during 1978—2014 is evaluated by means of data envelopment analysis in this study to investigate China＇s labor supply and demand,and to determine its changes in quantitative terms. When the economic aggregate is small and per capita capital stock is lower,the labor demand is relatively less,which will lead to labor surplus. Otherwise,there will be a shortage of labor supply. The results of the research reveals that the macroeconomic production in China falls into clear stages： 1978 to 1995 is the first stage,and 1995 to 2014 the second stage. In other words,labor supply in China differs significantly before and after 1994. Before 1994,labor supply exceeded demand;after 1994,under the dual influences of economic growth and family planning policy,the per-capita capital stock has grown rapidly,and fundamental changes in labor supply and demand occurred,which has consequently built the economic foundation for the implementation of the two-child policy.

关 键 词：人口政策 二胎政策 劳动力供需 数据包络分析法 宏观经济生产绩效 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]