基于粮食安全的宁夏耕地需求量预测  

Forecast of the demand of cultivated land in Ningxia based on food security consideration

作　　者：谢树春[1,2] 朱建军[1] 宋永永[3] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学地球科学与信息物理学院,湖南长沙410083 [2]长沙理工大学交通运输工程学院,湖南长沙410114 [3]宁夏大学资源环境学院,宁夏银川750021

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2016年第4期663-670,共8页Research of Agricultural Modernization

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41501442)~~

摘　　要：粮食安全是区域经济发展和社会稳定的基础。以宁夏回族自治区及宁南8县区为研究区,采用耕地需求预测模型、指数平滑预测模型、灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,在分析1990-2013年宁夏全区人口、耕地和粮食生产变化态势的基础上,预测了宁夏及宁南8县区2015-2030年的粮食安全状态和耕地需求量。结果表明:1990年以来,宁夏人口持续增加,耕地面积呈现先波动上升后波动下降的态势,粮食总产量表现为波动上升趋势,粮食供给基本处于安全状态;2015-2030年间,宁夏总人口和粮食作物单产仍将呈现增加态势;在不同组合方案下,保障宁夏未来粮食安全的最大耕地需求量为118.85万hm2,最小耕地需求量为93.39万hm2,全区粮食安全不容乐观。因此,加大耕地资源保护力度,提高耕地质量和产出水平是保障区域未来粮食安全的有效途径。Food security is the foundation of the regional economic development and social stability. Taking the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and it’s 8 counties in the south as the study area, this paper studied the changes of population, cultivated land, and grain production from 1990 to 2013 and predicted the demand for cultivated land in Ningxia in 2015 to 2030 by applying a demand forecast model for cultivated land, an exponential smoothing forecast model, and the grey GM （1,1） model. Data analyzing results show that：since 1990, the population in Ningxia has been increasing steadily, the total cultivated area has been rising with some lfuctuations, increasing ifrst and then decreasing, the total grain yield has been rising with some lfuctuations, and the food supply has been safe. Forecast results show that：the changes of the total population and grain yield per hectare will slowly increase in Ningxia. To ensure the grain security, the maximum cultivated land of 1.1885 million hm2 and minimum cultivated land of 0.933 million hm2 will be required under the different possible scenarios in 2015-2030. In general, the food security situation of Ningxia is not very promising. Therefore, strengthening the protection of cultivated land resources, improving the quality of cultivated land and the level of output could be effective ways to increase food security in Ningxia in the future.

关 键 词：粮食安全 生产潜力 变化态势 耕地需求 宁夏 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济]