基于景气指数的高耗能行业月度用电预测  

Forecasting Monthly Power Demand of Energy Intensive Industries Based on Industrial Boom Index

作　　者：叶彬[1] 杨敏[1] 荣秀婷[1] 王宝[1] 

机构地区：[1]国网安徽省电力公司经济技术研究院,安徽合肥230022

出　　处：《皖西学院学报》2016年第3期83-87,共5页Journal of West Anhui University

摘　　要：高耗能行业在工业行业用电量中的比例较高,且波动明显,传统计量方法难以准确预测。本研究提出一种基于行业景气指数的高耗能行业月度用电量预测方法,首先基于ARMA模型建立针对高耗能行业的月度用电量预测模型,再结合行业景气指数对模型进行改进,考察模型显著性特征及预测结果精度。以安徽省为案例区,对全省五大高耗能行业月度用电量进行预测,其中三个行业的预测模型在经过改造后预测效果更优,证明该方法具有一定的应用潜力。Electricity consumption of energy intensive industries is difficult to predict by traditional quantitative method,because it always fluctuates a lot,and accounts for a high proportion in the total.This study presented a method to forecast the industrial electricity consumption with consideration of Industrial Boom Index,in which an ARMA model to forecast electricity demand of energy intensive industries was built,and the model was improved by using Industrial Boom Index and investigated in the field of significance of the model and accuracy of forecasting results.The model was used in Anhui Province to forecast electricity demand of five energy intensive industries.The improved model gave a better result in three industries,which proved to have great potentiality.

关 键 词：行业景气指数 用电量预测 高耗能行业 ARMA模型 安徽省 

分 类 号：TM714[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]