需求侧响应下的电力负荷预测模型的改进  

The Improvement of Power Load Prediction Model in the Case of Demand Side Response

作　　者：郭崇[1,2] 王征[3] 纪建伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳农业大学信电学院,沈阳110866 [2]辽宁工业大学管理学院,锦州121001 [3]国网辽宁省电力有限公司,沈阳110006

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2016年第20期186-190,共5页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：辽宁省自然科学基金(201202191)资助

摘　　要：在电力负荷预测进行建模时,传统的预测模型需要消耗大量的电力负荷样本数据,同时不能准确描述电力系统内部的变化情况,降低了电力负荷预测的精度和可靠性。提出一种基于灰色预测模型的电力负荷预测模型的改进方法,分析了基本灰色预测模型的建模过程,同时依据需求侧响应约束条件对不符合约束条件的电力负荷预测结果进行剔除,从电力负荷原始数据的处理和灰色模型预测结果的修正两方面对其进行改进。实验结果表明,采用所提方法对电力负荷进行预测,得到的预测结果精度较高,性能优异。In power load forecasting model,the traditional power load forecasting model to spend a lot of sample data,and can't accurately describe the internal changes of power system,reduces the accuracy and reliability of power load forecasting. A model of power load forecasting based on grey prediction model of the improved method,analyzes the basic modeling process of grey prediction model,at the same time constraint based on the demand side response does not satisfy the constraint conditions of power load forecasting results are out,from the power load raw data processing and grey model predicted results of the modified two aspects carries on the improvement. The experimental results show that the proposed method to forecast the power load,the prediction accuracy is higher,the performance is excellent.

关 键 词：需求侧响应 电力负荷 预测 

分 类 号：TM714[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]