1971—2013年大连地区降水变化趋势分析  

Analysis of precipitation trend in Dalian from 1971 to 2013

作　　者：王秀萍 王烁[2] 李潇潇 

机构地区：[1]大连市气象台,辽宁大连116001 [2]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2016年第3期47-52,共6页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2014-012)资助

摘　　要：利用1971—2013年大连地区7个气象站的逐日降水资料,采用线性倾向估计法分析了大连地区降水量、降水日数、降水强度和不同等级降水贡献率的年及季节变化特征,并探讨了降水强度显著变化的原因。结果表明:1971—2013年大连地区年平均降水量呈微弱的增加趋势,春季和夏季降水量呈增加的趋势,而秋季和冬季降水量呈减少的趋势,仅春季降水量的增加趋势显著;年和四季降水日数均呈不显著减少的趋势;年和春季降水强度呈显著增加的趋势,而其余季节降水强度变化趋势不明显。年和春季降水强度显著增加主要是由于年和春季的暴雨贡献率及暴雨日数贡献率增加造成的。Based on the daily precipitation data from 1971 to 2013 in 7 weather stations in Dalian, the annual and seasonal variations of precipitation amount,precipitation days,precipitation intensity and contribution rate of precipitation under different grades were investigated in terms of a linear trend estimation method. Additionally, the reasons for significant changes in precipitation intensity were also examined. The results indicate that mean annual precipitation in Dalian during 1971-2013 shows a weak increasing trend. Precipitation in spring and summer during the last 43 years increases,whereas precipitation in autumn and winter decreases. Only spring precipitation during the last 43 years increases significantly. The annual and seasonal precipitation days during 1971-2013 show a downward trend and their trend do not pass the significant test. Annual and spring precipitation intensity increase significantly,whereas the variation trends of other seasonal precipitation intensity are not obvious. The significant increase of annual and spring precipitation intensity is due to the increasing contribution rate of annual and spring storm rainfall and storm rainfall days.

关 键 词：降水量 降水日数 降水强度 暴雨贡献率 

分 类 号：P468.024[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]