基于CLUE-S模型的矿业城市土地利用格局情景模拟  

Scenario Simulation of Land Use in Mining City Based on CLUE-S Model

作　　者：张博[1] 雷国平[1] 周浩[2] 王蕊[1] 董博文[1] 张旭[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学资源与环境学院,哈尔滨150030 [2]东北大学土地管理研究所,沈阳110004

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2016年第5期261-266,共6页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：黑国土科研"两大平原现代农业综合配套改革试验区土地管理制度创新"(201411)

摘　　要：运用CLUE-S模型对典型矿业城市——双鸭山市辖区进行未来土地利用模拟,基于遥感和地理信息系统技术,通过设定趋势发展、耕地保护、经济建设和生态保护4种情景,模拟了2025年当地不同情景下土地利用变化情况,结果表明:各土地利用类型均通过ROC检验,回归方程拟合程度高。1995年和2005年模拟正确比例分别为88.15%和92.10%,Kappa系数均超过0.75,准确率达到可信的效果。各情景土地利用模拟结果差异明显,在趋势发展下,耕地和其他用地面积持续较少,建设用地增长幅度最大;耕地保护情景下,耕地仍保持下降态势,但速度明显下降,建设用地和工矿用地的扩张趋势有所抑制;经济发展情景下,建设用地面积增长速度显著上升,将大量侵占其周边的耕地和园林地,工矿用地面积增长幅度最大;生态保护情景下,耕地、其他用地和工矿用地面积以不同程度趋势下降,园林地和水域用地面积显著增加。研究结果为当地相关规划的合理编制及土地资源保护提供了参考依据。CLUE-S model was used to simulate the land use of a typical mining city,Shuangyashan City,in the future based on remote sensing and geographic information system technology,and to simulate the changes of land use in different contexts during the year of 2025 by setting 4kinds of scenarios：natural development,cultivated land protection,economic development and ecological protection.The result showed that the various land use types had passed the ROC test,and the degree of regression equation fitted by data was high.In 1995 and 2005,the correct proportions in simulation were 88.15% and 92.10%,respectively,and Kappa coefficient was more than 0.75,what′s more,the rate of accuracy reached to the credible effect.The simulation results of land use were obviously different under each situation.With the trend of development,cultivated land and other lands were decreasing and the increase of construction land was highest;in the scenario of cultivated land protection,the area of cultivated land still keeps dropping,but the speed of dropping is significantly lower than before,the expansions of construction land and mining land were restrained;with economic development,the growth rate of construction land increased dramatically,which occupied the area of its surrounding cultivated land and garden land,the increase of mining land was highest;with respect to ecological protection,the area of cultivated land,else land and mining land decreased in different degrees,the area of garden land and water area enlarged significantly.The results can provide reasonable references for preparation of local planning and protection of the land resources.

关 键 词：CLUE-S 矿业城市 土地利用 情景模拟 双鸭山市 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]