六安市大气污染与医院心血管门诊关系时间序列分析  

Time Series Analysis on Relationship between Air Pollution and Outpatient Visits for Cardiovascular Diseases in a Hospital in Liu'an City

作　　者：臧涛[1,2] 尹纯礼 李林林[1] 姚慈将 张健[1] 操基玉[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽医科大学公共卫生学院 [2]皖西卫生职业学院

出　　处：《环境卫生学杂志》2016年第3期214-218,共5页JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HYGIENE

摘　　要：目的研究六安市大气污染、气象因素对某医院心血管系统疾病门诊量的影响。方法采用广义相加Poisson回归模型的时间序列研究,在控制门诊量的长期趋势,星期效应,气象因素等混杂因素的影响后,分析六安市2012年1月1日—2013年12月31日大气污染物SO_2、NO_2、PM_(10)等浓度与六安市某医院心血管系统疾病门诊量之间的关系。结果研究期间,心血管系统疾病日门诊量为69.7人次。在单因素广义相加Poisson回归模型中,SO_2对心血管系统疾病门诊量存在保护作用,浓度每升高10μg/m^3在滞后第3天相应的RR达到最大值为0.9987(0.9975~0.9998)。NO_2、PM_(10)浓度分别滞后3天,第4天对心血管系统疾病门诊量的影响较明显,其浓度每升高10μg/m^3其相应的RR最大值分别为1.0022(1.0012~1.0031),1.00054(1.0002~1.0008)。结论大气污染物SO_2与六安市某医院心血管系统门诊量存在负相关。NO_2、PM_(10)与该医院心血管系统疾病门诊量存在正相关。Objective To evaluate the health effect of air pollutants on outpatient visits for cardiovascular dis- eases in Liu＇ an City. Methods A Generalized Additive Poisson Regression Model was used to examine the time- series and exposure-response relationship between the daily morbidity of cardiovascular diseases and the concen- tration of ambient SO2 , NO2 and PMI0 from Jan 1,2012 to Dec 31, 2013 in Liu＇ an city after controlling the effect of long-term trends of variation, such as ＂the day of a week＂ and meteorological factors. Results The number of daily outpatient visit for cardiovascular diseases was 69.7. The results of a single-pollutant generalized additive Poisson regression model showed a protection of SO2 on the number of outpatient visit for cardiovascular diseases with a 3 days delay, the maximum RR for outpatient visits on each 10 ~g/m3 increment of SO2 was 0. 9987 （CI： 0. 9975 -0. 9998）. The increment of NO2 and PM10 concentration showed a significant increase of outpatient visit for cardiovascular diseases with a 3 days and 4 days delay, respectively. The maximum RR for daily outpatient visits on each 10μg/m3 increment of NO2 and PM10 were 1. 0022 （ 1. 0012 - 1. 0031 ） and 1. 00054 （ 1. 0002 1. 0008） , respectively. Conclusion The concentration of SO2 was positively associated with daily outpatient vis- its; and the concentration of NO2 and PM10 was positively associated with daily outpatient visits for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases in Liu＇ an city.

关 键 词：大气污染/门诊量 时间序列 广义相加模型 

分 类 号：R122[医药卫生—环境卫生学] R54[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]