初婚解体风险变化趋势及其影响因素——基于CFPS2010数据的分析  

Research on Change Trend and Influencing Factors of Marriage Collapse Risk: Statistics Analysis on Data CFPS2010

作　　者：彭大松[1] 陈友华[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京邮电大学人口研究院,江苏南京210042 [2]南京大学社会学院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《人口与社会》2016年第3期85-97,共13页Population and Society

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71173100);国家社会科学基金重点资助项目(11AZD025);江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目(2011ZDAXM017)

摘　　要：基于中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS2010),分析中国初婚解体风险变化趋势及其影响因素。结果表明:随时间推移,初婚解体风险总体呈现上升趋势,其对城市的影响超过了农村,对女性的影响超过了男性;初婚年龄与初婚解体风险呈现轻微的U型关系,主要是由早婚或晚婚的婚姻异质性所引起;婚姻异质性对初婚解体风险的作用受择偶梯度的影响,"男高女低"婚姻模式的初婚离婚风险远远小于"女高男低"模式;在家庭因素的影响中,生育孩子有利于降低初婚离婚风险,而与父母同住及婚前同居则显著增加了初婚离婚风险。Based on data CFPS2010, the paper analyzes Chinese marriage collapse risk trend and influencing factors. Conclusion as following： with the development of social transformation, marriage break- up increasing rapidly. Its influence is greater on urban than rural, men than women. The first marriage age of first marriage break- up appear to be slightly U- shaped relationship. And this relationship is caused by marriage heterogeneity. Marriage heterogeneity effect on the risk of marriage break-up is affected by mating gradient concept, and divorce risk of the ＂male high female low＂ model is lower than the ＂male low female high＂ model. Some family factors also affect marriage collapse risk： child bearing reduces the divorce risk; living with parents increases divorce risk; premarital cohabitation also increases divorce risk.

关 键 词：初婚解体 婚姻匹配 婚姻 家庭 离婚 

分 类 号：C913.1[经济管理]