区域房地产信贷运行与房地产市场稳定性相互影响的实证分析——以大连市为例  

Regional Mortgage Development and the Stability of the Real Estate Market:Evidence from Dalian

作　　者：李兴法[1] 秦学志[1] 田苗[2] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学管理与经济学部 [2]大连银行总行风险管理部

出　　处：《金融监管研究》2016年第6期25-42,共18页Financial Regulation Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71471026;71171032)的赞助

摘　　要：房地产行业作为二、三线城市经济的重要产业,对二、三线城市经济发展起着举足轻重的作用。但近两年来二、三线城市房地产市场出现震荡下行趋势。对此,辖内金融机构纷纷采取积极措施支持房地产市场的稳健发展。本文以大连市为例,运用GARCH模型提取房地产市场价格波动序列,并通过Granger因果检验和向量误差修正模型的脉冲响应函数,对区域内房地产信贷投放规模和质量两个因素与辖区房地产市场稳定性之间相互影响的渠道和冲击响应进行了实证探讨。最后,结合实证结果和二、三线城市当前房地产市场的实际情况,提出相关政策建议。As a pillar industry of the economy in China, real estate industry plays a decisive role in the economic development of second and third-tier cities. But in the past two years, the real estate market in second and third-tier cities showed a shock-downward trend. In this regard, the regional financial institutions have taken active measures to support the steady development of real estate markets. With the data of Dalian, this paper uses the GARCH Model to extract the volatility series of real estate market prices, and studies the relationship between the quantity and quality of mortgage and market stability in the region and the channels through which affect each other with the Granger Causality Test and Impulse Response Function of a Vector Error Correction model. Finally, combining the empirical results and the actual situation in real estate market of second and third-tier cities, we propose relevant policy recommendations

关 键 词：房地产信贷投放 房地产市场稳定性 GARCH模型 GRANGER因果检验 脉冲响应函数 

分 类 号：F299.233[经济管理—国民经济]