基于CMIP5变化条件下的清江流域径流响应研究  

Research of Runoff Change in Qingjiang River Basin Based on CMIP5 Climate Model

作　　者：王琤浩[1,2] 刘冀[1,2] 董晓华[1,2] 喻丹[3] 

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心,湖北武汉430072 [3]武汉大学水利水电学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2016年第7期16-20,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41101511);湖北省教育厅自然科学研究项目(Q20141204)

摘　　要：为预测气候变化和土地利用变化条件下清江渔峡口站以上清江流域未来径流变化情况,首先建立SWAT模型,采用CMIP5三种模式下2016～2100年月降水情景数据,经降尺度后预测月径流。结果表明,未来年内最大月降水和月径流出现时间提前1～2个月,经Mann-Kendall（M-K）检验,降水和径流在2016～2100年间均呈整体增强趋势,但在2016～2035年内的降水和径流量均较历史时期（1990～1999年）低。在空间优化配置土地利用情景下的平均年径流量相对基准期年径流的变幅较现有土地利用情况下有所减小。研究成果对长江防洪、梯级电站调度工作有积极意义。In order to forecast the future runoff change in the upper Yuxiakou Station of the Qingjiang River basin under the conditions of climate change and land use,the soil and water assessment tool（SWAT）was established at first.After downscaling the monthly precipitation over 2016-2100 of three climate models under different RCP scenarios from the phase 5of the coupled model intercomparison project（CMIP5）,the monthly runoff was forecasted.The results show that the future peak monthly discharge and precipitation will be anticipated（1-2months earlier）.The overall tendency of the change runoff and precipitation will be increasing in the period of 2016-2100 based on Mann-Kendall test,even though in near term（2016-2035）they will be less than the ones in historical period（1990-1999）.The difference between annual average runoff in future and the one in historical period will decrease under spatial optimized land use scenario when compared with the prediction under the current land use scenario.The research has important meaning for flood control and cascade power station dispatching in the Yangtse River Basin.

关 键 词：径流响应 SWAT模型 气候变化 CMIP5模式组 土地利用/土地覆盖变化 清江流域 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P339[天文地球—水文科学]