基于熵权和改进AHP的中小型水电工程施工风险评估模型及应用  

Model and Application of Construction Risk Evaluation of Small and Mediumsized Hydropower Projects Based on Entropy Weight and Improved AHP Method

作　　者：陈志鼎[1] 张扬[1] 闫海兰[1] 

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2016年第7期171-174,162,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：湖北省教育厅自然科学研究项目(D20141208)

摘　　要：针对中小型水电工程的工程量较小、工期短、施工规模不大的特点,分析了其施工风险评估指标,通过鱼骨图对项目潜在的施工风险进行识别,结合熵权法和专家评分对施工风险因素进行筛选,通过改进AHP确立各指标权重并排序,构建了基于熵权和改进AHP的中小型水电工程施工风险评估模型,并将其应用于重庆市某小型水电工程施工风险评估中。结果表明,技术水平和管理能力为该工程的最不利因素,市场法律法规变动为最小风险,与工程实际风险情况基本相符。可见该评估模型合理、可行。Aiming at the characteristics of small and medium-sized hydropower projects construction,such as smaller quantities,short construction period,and small construction scale,this paper analyzed the evaluation index of its construction risk,identities the potential construction risk through the fishbone diagram,and makes the screening of construction risk factors by combining entropy weight method with the expert risk scoring method.And then we adopt the optimization of analytic hierarchy process to determine the important degree of various factors and make an order.As a result,the small and medium-sized hydropower project construction risk evaluation model is established based on entropy weight and AHP method.Finally,the model is applied to a certain small hydropower project in Chongqing City.The results show that the technological level and management ability are the most unfavourable factors,and the market change in laws and regulations has the minimum risk.Those results are basically in line with the condition of the practical project risk.So,the evaluation model is reasonable and feasible.

关 键 词：熵权 AHP 中小型水电工程 施工风险 

分 类 号：TV51[水利工程—水利水电工程] F282[经济管理—国民经济]