供给侧改革视角下:我国CPI与PPI偏离的实证研究  

An Empirical Study of China's CPI and PPI Deviation under the Supply Side Reform Perspective

作　　者：陈张杭健 王力[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学金融学院,安徽蚌埠233000

出　　处：《齐齐哈尔大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2016年第7期55-59,共5页Journal of Qiqihar University(Philosophy & Social Science Edition)

基　　金：教育部人文社科一般项目:国民收入分配对居民收入差距的影响研究(11YJC790180);安徽财经大学2014年研究生科研创新基金项目(CXJJ2014048)

摘　　要：本文使用2005年5月-2015年3月中国与14个发达国家的月度CPI与PPI数据,分析了CPI与PPI之间的偏离程度,旨在探究我国两者之间的偏离与发达国家相比是否属于经济平稳运行的正常现象,以及两者之间相对偏离程度的大小。通过构造绝对偏离指数和面板数据模型分析发现:与发达国家相比,我国CPI与PPI之间发生了严重的偏离,并且这种偏离并不是经济平稳运行的正常现象;由PPI的变动所引起的相对偏离程度比由CPI的变动所引起的相对偏离程度要大,当PPI每变动一单位时,CPI将偏离PPI指数0.7849个单位;当CPI每变动一单位时,PPI将偏离CPI指数0.1871个单位。最后,本文基于实证研究结果,论证了供给侧改革的必要性及其对改善CPI与PPI之间严重背离的状况所起的作用。This thesis uses May 2005- March 2015 monthly CPI and PPI data from China and 14 developed countries to analyze the extent of deviation between CPI and PPI,aiming to explore a departure from the country between the two countries whether it is a normal phenomenon compared to the smooth running of the economy,as well as the size of the degree of deviation between the two. By constructing the absolute deviation from the index and a panel data model analysis found that compared with developed countries,a serious deviation between China＇s CPI and PPI took place; the relative degree of deviation caused by a change in PPI is larger than the relative degree of deviation from the change in the CPI. When PPI changes one unit,CPI will deviate from the PPI index 0. 7849 units;when the CPI does a unit changes,PPI index will deviate from the CPI Index 0. 1871 units. Finally,based on the results of empirical research,we demonstrate the necessity of the supply- side reforms and to improve the serious departure from the situation between the CPI and PPI role.

关 键 词：CPI PPI 偏离程度 供给侧改革 

分 类 号：F014.31[经济管理—政治经济学]