1951-2010年淮河流域极端降水区域频率特征及其环流背景  

Regional Frequency Analysis and Atmospheric Circulation Pattern of Extreme Precipitation in the Huai River Basin in 1951-2010

作　　者：郑泳杰 张强[1,2,3] 陈晓宏[1,2] 江涛[1,2] 张生[4] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学水资源与环境系,广东广州510275 [2]中山大学华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室,广东广州510275 [3]中山大学广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室,广东广州510275 [4]宿州学院环境与测绘学院,安徽宿州234000

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（理学版）》2016年第4期381-388,共8页Journal of Wuhan University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家杰出青年科学基金(51425903);安徽省自然科学基金(1508085MD65);香港特别行政区研究资助局(CUHK441313)项目

摘　　要：基于淮河流域43个雨量站点日降水数据,选取广义极值分布(GEV)、广义logistic分布(GLO)、广义正态分布(GNO)、皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布(PE3)、广义帕累托分布(GPA)等5种概率分布模型,利用线性矩法研究了年最大1,3,5,7d降水量的区域频率特征,分析了淮河流域极端降水变化的水汽环流背景.结果表明:1)淮河流域可划分为4个降水相似区,概率分布模型各不相同,极端降水过程存在显著空间差异性;2)在百年一遇重现期下,该方法对淮河流域极端降水的估计结果具有较高的可靠性;3)淮河流域南北气候差异大,流域北部极端降水较少且更为集中,易发生干旱,流域南部极端降水较多且强降水持续时间更长,易发生洪涝灾害;4)淮河流域极端降水主要集中于夏季7月份,南部降水集中期(5月上旬)较北部早(7月下旬);5)淮河流域夏季水汽主要来源于南海的西南季风,流域南部5-7月形成水汽辐合中心并持续维持,江淮准静止锋是影响流域南部极端降水的主要因素.The L-moments approach was applied in the regional frequency analysis based on the annual maximum 1-,3-,5-,and 7-day precipitation from 43 stations in the Huai River Basin.Five probability distribution model：generalized extremevalue distribution（GEV）,generalized logistic（GLO）,generalized normal distribution（GNO）,Pearson typeⅢdistribution（PE3）and generalized Pareto distribution（GPA）were selected for comparison analysis.Spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation extremes and large-scale circulation patterns were further investigated to find out the possible driving forces behind the extreme precipitation changes.Results indicate that：1）The Huai River Basin can be divided into four homogenous regions which have different best fitted distributions and there are evident difference in extreme precipitation regimes among the four regions;2）The estimation of precipitation extremes based on L-moments is reliable with return periods of less than 100years;3）The amount of extreme precipitation decreases gradually from the southern to the northern part of the Huai River Basin;4）Most of the extreme precipitation occurs during summer with the major extreme precipitation events concentrated in July.It can be detected that the precipitation concentration period of the southern part of the basin is earlier than that of thenorthern part;5）The summer precipitation of the Huai River Basin mainly dominated by both the monsoons come from the western Atlantic or the Indian Ocean and the Jianghuai Quasi-stationary Front.

关 键 词：极端降水 区域频率分析 线性矩法 淮河流域 重现期 

分 类 号：P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]