“资产荒”和“信用风险”博弈，把握结构性机会——银行间债市上半年回顾及下半年展望  

＂Asset Shortage＂ vs ＂Credit Risk＂ -- Review of interbank bond market in Q1-2 and market outlook in Q3-4

作　　者：胡施聪[1] 吴凡[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国建设银行金融市场部

出　　处：《中国货币市场》2016年第7期19-23,共5页China Money

摘　　要：上半年，央行政策审慎、经济底部企稳预期和频发的风险事件等因素成为主导债市走势的首要因素，因此债市并未表现出前两年的疯牛态势，而是在各种因素交织影响下以震荡走势为主。展望下半年，通胀和房地产回升等基本面制约因素会有所减弱，在“资产荒”及风险偏好难以回升的情况下，债市仍有机会走出一波反弹行情。In Q1-2, the prime factors affecting the trend of the bond market included prudential monetary policy of the central bank, expectations on economic stabilizing and frequent occurrence of risk events. The bond market did not go mad as it was two years ago, but moved with fluctuations with the affection of a variety of factors. In Q3- 4, as fundamental factors such as inflation rate and property prices rise weakened, the bond market will rebound under asset shortages and less risk appetite.

关 键 词：债市 信用风险 资产 展望 银行间 博弈 结构 风险事件 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学]