我国财政政策的制度属性识别——基于TVP-VAR-SV方法  

An Identifying Study of China's Fiscal Policy Regime——Based on TVP-VAR-SV Model

作　　者：尹雷[1] 赵亮[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《财政研究》2016年第6期57-65,F0003,共10页Public Finance Research

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目<基于物价调控的我国最优财政货币政策体制研究>(项目号:12&ZD064)的资助;国家社会科学基金项目<新型城镇化进程中财政教育支出绩效评估研究>(项目号:15XGL005)资助;校级课题<财政政策宏观经济效应与新常态下财政工具选择>(项目号:ZXXJ201507)资助

摘　　要：财政政策的制度属性直接关系到政策目标的指派和财政货币政策搭配效果,在非李嘉图制度下,旨在控制通胀的主动货币政策反而可能引致通胀水平的爆炸性解。我国财政政策是否具有非李嘉图制度属性现在仍存争议。本文利用四变量TVP-VAR-SV模型和两变量SVAR模型,在局部制度模拟视角下对我国财政政策的制度属性进行识别,结果表明我国财政政策在1980-2015年间始终为李嘉图制度,FTPL在我国不适用。这一结论意味着,我国财政当局拥有较广的政策空间,在宏观调控时不必受通胀问题掣肘,维持物价稳定的政策目标应指派给央行。主动型货币政策、李嘉图制度属性财政政策的搭配组合在我国具有适用性。Fiscal policy Regime has a direct influence on policy target assignment and the efficiency of policy collocation. In Non-Ricardian Regime, active monetary policy, which aims at inflation rate control, results in in- flation explosion or deflation traps. Since there is still a debate on whether China＇s fiscal policy is Non-Ricar- dian, we constructed a four variants TVP-VAR-SV model and a two variants Structural VAR model based on lo- cal system simulation view to identify it. It is proved that during 1980~ 2015, C hina＇s fiscal policy is Ricardian and FTPL is not suitable to explain how prices are determined in China. The solution gives enlightenment that our government still has broad space for policy target assignment. It＇s not necessary to take inflation into considera- tion. It could be left for the central bank to stabilize price fluctuation. The combination of active monetary policy and Ricardian fiscal policy is suitable for our country.

关 键 词：FTPL 非李嘉图制度 TVP-VAR-SV 

分 类 号：F810[经济管理—财政学]