基于风速-负荷联合状态的发输电系统可靠性评估研究  

Reliability assessment of generation and transmission systems considering joint state of wind speed and load

作　　者：杨苏[1] 袁越[1] 陆丹[1] 吴涵[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学能源与电气学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《可再生能源》2016年第7期1024-1031,共8页Renewable Energy Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51477041)

摘　　要：随着风电渗透率的不断增加,准确评估风电场对发输电系统可靠性的影响十分重要。文章基于拉丁超立方抽样法(LHS)和马尔可夫过程(Markov)理论,采用等频率状态划分方式,建立了风速-负荷的马尔可夫多状态转移过程,提出了一种计及风速-负荷自相关性和互相关性的LHS-Markov可靠性评估方法。以IEEE-RBTS测试系统为算例,使用实测风速数据,通过风速-负荷联合状态抽样对其进行模拟,分析了风电场容量对含风电场的发输电系统可靠性的影响。计算结果证明了该方法的有效性,对风电场的并网规划具有重要指导意义。With the increasing penetration of wind power, an accurate assessment of the impact of wind farms on the generation and transmission system reliability is very important. Based on Latin hypercube sampling method and Markov process, using an interval division principle of equal frequency, a joint multi-state Markov transition process is established. On the basis, this paper puts forward a LHS-Markov method for reliability analysis of generation and transmission systems considering correlations between the wind speed and load. The new reliability assessment method is applied to the reliability test system IEEE-RBTS with the measured wind speed data. This paper simulates the state of wind speed and load well through the joint state, and analyses the effects of the wind farm capacity on generation and transmission systems. The result demonstrates that the proposed method is effective and it can provide reference for wind farms construction.

关 键 词：拉丁超立方抽样 马尔可夫过程 风速-负荷联合状态 可靠性评估 发输电系统 

分 类 号：TK[动力工程及工程热物理] TM615[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]