房地产“限购令”的调控机制与政策反思——基于单中心双环城市模型的分析  

THE ANALYSIS ON THE INFLUENCE MECHANISM AND POLICY PERSPECTIVE OF THE HOUSING RESTRICTION POLICY ON CHINA'S URBAN HOUSING PRICES——Based on Single Center-dual Cycle City Model

作　　者：韩永辉[1] 张佐敏[2] 邹建华[3] 

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学广东国际战略研究院,邮政编码510420 [2]海南大学经济与管理学院 [3]中山大学岭南学院

出　　处：《经济理论与经济管理》2016年第7期16-28,共13页Economic Theory and Business Management

基　　金：广东省哲学社会科学规划项目(GD15YYJ01);广东省软科学研究计划项目(2016A070706006);广东省教育厅青年创新人才项目(2015WQNCX029);广东省自然科学基金创新团队项目(S2013030015737);海南省哲学社会科学规划课题(HNSK(GJ)14-21)的资助

摘　　要：近年来中国城市住房价格快速上涨,政府推出房地产"限购令",以期调整房地产市场,控制城市房价。本文构建了带"限购令"政策约束条件的单中心双环城市住房市场模型,利用数值模拟的方法,从理论上分析房地产"限购令"的政策效果和作用机制。结果显示,限购政策使大中小城市房价均有所下跌,中小城市房价的下降幅度大于大城市的幅度,城市的投机性住房需求越大,限购政策的效果越明显。本文认为"限购令"作为非市场调控手段,仅可作权宜之计而非长久之策,应充分考虑城市的异质性特征,对限购政策进行辨证选择。In recent years, China＇s urban housing prices rose rapidly. The housing restriction policy had been launched in order to adjust the real-estate market and control urban housing prices. In this paper, we constructed a single center-dual cycle city model of urban housing market with constraints of the hous- ing restriction policy to analyze its effect and mechanism by means of numerical simulation. The results showed that housing prices of cities with different scale decreased due to the restriction policy. The hous ing prices of small and medium-sized cities declined more than those of large cities. The larger the specula tive housing demand, the more effective of the restriction policy. However, as a non-market regulation means, the restriction policy could only be adopted temporarily. It＇s necessary to fully consider heteroge- neity of cities and dialectically choose restriction policy.

关 键 词：单中心双环城市模型 房地产 限购政策 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]