情报分析中选择性信息呈现偏差及其修正——以侦查情报分析为例  

Selective Exposure to Information Bias and Correction in Intelligence Analysis——Perspective of Criminal Investigation Intelligence Analysis

作　　者：刘杰[1] 王均平[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学刑事司法学院,武汉430072

出　　处：《情报杂志》2016年第7期25-30,共6页Journal of Intelligence

摘　　要：[目的/意义]情报分析过程中选择性信息呈现偏差会增加情报失察风险、妨碍对初始情报决策的修正,甚至导致刑事冤假错案产生。对此展开研究有助于情报分析人员在分析过程中警惕、识别、防范此类偏差,提升情报产品质量。[方法/过程]通过对此类偏差的认知属性及其心理机制的研究,指出侦查情报分析中此类偏差的典型样态,如权威服从偏差、"证实"偏差、关系认定偏差等,进而提出修正策略。[结果/结论]认为采取专业培训与自我反省相结合、创建"N+1"的情报信息研判模式、构建奖惩机制与转变角色认知等方法可有效削弱和降低此类偏差对情报分析的不良影响。[Purpose/Significance]Selective exposure to information bias in intelligence analysis will increase intelligence failure risk, prevent the correction to the initial intelligence decision, and even lead to criminal misjudged case. This research is helpful to the intelli-gence analyst in the process of analysis of vigilance, identification and prevention of such bias, so as to improve the quality of intelligence products. [ Method/Process] Through the research on the cognitive attribution and psychological mechanism of this bias, it pointed out the typical pattern of this kind of bias in the investigation intelligence analysis, such as the authority obedience bias,＂confirmation＂ bias, re-lationship identification bias, etc. , and then put forward the correction strategy. [ Results/Conclusions] Taking professional training and self-reflection combining, creating ＂N ＋ 1＂ information judged model, building a mechanism of rewards and punishments and changing the role of the cognitive method can effectively weaken and reduce the adverse effects of such deviations of intelligence analysis.

关 键 词：情报分析 侦查情报 选择性信息呈现 认知偏差 

分 类 号：G350[文化科学—情报学]