改革开放以来中国人口空间分布特征——基于1982—2010年全国四次人口普查资料的分析  

The Population Spatial Distribution Characteristics of China Since the Reform and Opening Up——Analysis of the Four National Census Data Based on 1982-2010

作　　者：李博[1,2] 金淑婷[1] 陈兴鹏[1,2] 石培基[3] 庞家幸[1,2] 达福文[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源环境学院,中国甘肃兰州730000 [2]兰州大学中国西部循环经济研究中心,中国甘肃兰州730000 [3]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,中国甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《经济地理》2016年第7期27-37,共11页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41471462;41271133);兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(13LZUJBWZB003);中央高校基本科研业务专项资金(lzujbky-2015-216)1985E-mail

摘　　要：依据中国1982—2010年四次分县(区)人口普查数据,借助标准差椭圆分析方法、多阶段嵌套Theil系数、重心曲线、空间分布图系等研究方法,对中国人口空间分布格局及其变化进行对比分析,揭示了改革开放以来中国人口空间分布的基本演变态势。结果表明:(1)近30年来,中国人口重心位移距离变化较小,人口空间分布格局基本保持稳定,东北—西南方向人口空间分布呈现出不断集聚趋势,西北—东南方向人口空间分布则呈现出分散趋势。(2)多阶段嵌套Theil系数计算结果表明,中国人口空间分布差异总体呈缓慢缩小趋势,但省内人口空间分布差异和地级行政单元内的空间分布差异却呈现出明显增强趋势。(3)人口分布密度变化重心曲线呈"波浪"形,有西北向东南方向人口密度逐步由稀疏趋于稠密的趋势;基于分布图系、人口重心曲线将人口密度变化区域划分为无人区、极端稀疏区、相对稀疏区、中等分布区、低度密集区、中度密集区、高度密集区、极端密集区8大类型区,整个研究阶段八大类型区的县级行政区数量及人口数量变化较为明显。According to four census data of counties（districts） in China from 1982 to 2010, we make a comparative analysis on the spatial distribution pattern of China＇s population and its changes by using the method of standard deviation ellipse analysis, the multi-stage nested Theil coefficient, the gravity center curve and the spatial distribution map system and so on, which reveals the basic evolution trend of population spatial distribution in China since the reform and opening up. The results show that ①In the last 30 years, the displacement distance change of the population gravity center in China is small and population spatial distribution pattern remains stable, the population spatial distribution in the Northeast-Southwest presents a continuous agglomeration trend and in the Northwest-Southeast shows a trend of dispersion; ②the calculation result of the multi-stage nested Theil coefficient shows that the differences of population spatial distribution in China are in a slowly narrowing trend, but the differences in the province and prefecture level administrative unit present an obvious increase trend; ③the gravity center curve of the population distribution density changes presents a shape of ＂wave＂ and there is a trend that population density changes from sparseness to denseness gradually from the Northwest to the Southeast; Based on the distribution map system and population gravity center curve, the region of the population density change is divided into 8 types, including no man land, extreme sparse area, relatively sparse area, medium distribution area, low density area, medium density area, high density area and extreme dense area, the change of the county administrative area number and the population number of 8 types in the whole research stage is more obvious.

关 键 词：人口空间分布 人口普查 计量分析 稳定性 中国 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]