基于Copula-network的相依部件系统可靠性计算  

Copula theory based calculation of reliability of dependent components system

作　　者：李莉洁[1,2] 贾利民[1] 王艳辉[1] 秦勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学轨道交通控制与安全国家重点实验室,北京100044 [2]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2016年第6期63-68,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划(2015BAG12B01);北京交通大学轨道交通控制与安全国家重点实验室自主课题(RCS2016ZZ002)

摘　　要：为解决传统系统可靠性的理论计算结果与实际不符合的问题,开展部件关联的系统可靠性网络化表征与计算研究。通过分析系统部件间的作用关系,以部件为节点,部件间作用关系为边,运用网络模型表征部件关联的复杂系统,重点研究利用部件的服役行为信息,实现部件关联系统的可靠性分析。基于此,将多元Copula函数引入系统可靠性的计算中,建立基于Copula理论的可靠性网络模型及其数学表达;根据节点输入和输出情况差异,分情况计算部件关联系统可靠性;以高速列车转向架系统为背景,应用所建立方法并验证其有效性。结果表明,用基于Copula理论的部件关联系统可靠性网络化表征与计算方法,可对高速列车转向架系统可靠性进行有效分析与估计,为用网络评估复杂机电系统可靠性提供一种新方法。The paper was aimed at solving the problem that traditional system reliability evaluation result did not correspond to the reality, which always assumed that the components are independent. Reliability network representation and evaluation were realized for dependent components systems. The components were taken as the nodes and the relationships between components were taken as the edges. The network model was used to represent the complex system composed of dependent components. The research emphasis was on reliability analysis by using the information on service behavior of the components and subsystems. By introducing Copula function to the system reliability evaluation, a system reliability network model and its mathematical formulas were conducted based on Copula theory. And the system reliability evaluation can be achieved according to the different types of input and output nodes. In addition, taking a certain bogie system of high-speed train as the background, the method proposed in this paper was verified. Results show that the method can be used to analyze effectively and estimate the reliability of the bogie system of high speed train, providing a new method of using network to assess reliability of complex electromechanical systems.

关 键 词：系统可靠性 COPULA函数 部件关联 网络模型 高速列车 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]