新常态下货币政策规则适用性研究——基于基于DSGE模型的分析  

A study on accommodation of the rule of monetary policy in new normality--Analysis based on DSGE model

作　　者：张达平[1] 赵振全[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《经济学家》2016年第8期72-80,共9页Economist

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“引领经济发展新常态的市场基础、体制机制和发展方式研究”(15ZDC008);国家社科基金重点项目“我国经济发展新常态的形成机理、趋势性特征及经济政策取向研究”(15AZD001)

摘　　要：本文利用DSGE模型对价格型货币政策规则和数量型货币政策规则在我国的适用性进行了研究。结果表明:本文政策规则方程参数的估计结果较为显著,同时根据脉冲响应分析的模拟结果可以发现,以利率调控为主的价格型货币政策对宏观经济的影响强度较大,且政策效果的持续期较短。当经济受到外生冲击而产生对稳态的偏离时,价格型货币政策调控可以在短期内有效地抚平经济波动。因此,我国应发挥好基准利率的引导作用,完善中央银行利率调控体系以支持实体经济持续健康发展。We use DSGE model to make a study on the accommodation of the rule of price-oriented monetary policy and the rule of quantity-oriented monetary policy. The results show that： the estimated results of the parameter of the equation of policy rule in this paper are significant; and that according to the simulation results of the analysis on impulse response, we can find that price-oriented monetary policy which is led by interests regulation has more impact on macro economy, and that the persistent period of policy effects is relatively short. When the economy deviates from stability because of exogenous shocks, the regulation of price-oriented monetary policy could calm economic fluctuation efficiently in a short time. As a result, it is necessary for China to take advantage of the guiding role of benchmark interest rate and improve the interest regulation system of central banks to support the consistent and healthy development of real economy.

关 键 词：货币政策规则 DSGE模型 脉冲响应分析 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]