基于云模型的PPP项目风险分担方案决策方法  

Method of Decision Making of PPP Project Risk Allocation Scheme Based on Cloud Model

作　　者：尹航[1,2] 李远富[2,3] 赵冬梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学经济管理学院,四川成都610031 [2]教育部高速铁路线路工程重点实验室,四川成都610031 [3]西南交通大学土木工程学院,四川成都610031

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2016年第15期201-206,共6页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目"特大跨径钢箱梁悬索桥监控;管理关键技术研究"(2008BAG07B05);国家自然科学基金项目"出行主体的相对危险暴露量理论及运用"(71271176);中国工程院重点咨询项目"交通基础设施重大结构安全保障战略研究"(2015-01-01)

摘　　要：构建一套适用于PPP项目的风险评价指标体系,设计一种基于云模型的风险分担方案决策方法。采用视评价云厚度进行循环改进打分的方法,解决传统方案决策方法中少数持正确观点专家意见被评价结论忽略的问题。绘制出各待评风险分担方案的评价云,逐一与标准云进行云相似性比较,择相似性最大者为最优方案。This paper builds a set of risk index evaluation system suitable for the PPP project, and designs a decision mak- ing method of risk allocation scheme based on cloud model. The paper uses a cycle improvement rate method depending on the thickness of the cloud to solve the problem of traditional scheme comparison methods by which the correct advice from minority experts could been ignored. Evaluation clouds of risk sharing schemes waiting for review are drawn and compared with the reference cloud, and the one which has the largest similarity is chosen as the optimal solution.

关 键 词：PPP项目 云模型 风险分担 决策 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济]