基于累积前景理论的出行方式选择模型及实证  

The cumulative prospect theory-based travel mode choice model and its empirical verification

作　　者：田丽君[1] 杨茜[2] 黄海军[2] 吕成锐 

机构地区：[1]福州大学经济与管理学院,福州350116 [2]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京100191

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2016年第7期1778-1785,共8页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家重大基础研究计划(2012CB725400);国家自然科学基金(71301028);福建省杰出青年科学基金(2016J06017);福建省高校杰出青年科研人才培育计划(JAS14041)~~

摘　　要：以通勤者的出行方式选择为背景,假设存在三种可能的出行方式:地铁出行、自驾车出行和自驾车-地铁换乘出行.地铁方式的出行时间是确定的,而自驾车方式和停车换乘方式的出行时间均具有一定的不确定性,在此基础上建立了基于累积前景理论和期望效用理论的出行方式选择模型,并在不同出行场景下对比了两种理论框架下最优选择结果的差异.最后通过实证调查数据对理论模型的结果进行检验.实证结果表明,个体决策行为会随着出行场景的变化而改变,其出行方式选择结果与累积前景理论框架下的结果相符.因此,交通管理部门应结合个体风险偏好进行道路资源优化与管理.Taking the commuters＇ travel mode choice behaviors as the research subject, we assume that there are three possible travel modes of transit mode, solo-driving mode and park-and-ride mode. Without loss of generality, the travel time for transit mode is assumed fixed while the travel time for other two inodes are assumed stochastic. With this consideration, we first establish the travel mode choice models and compared the difference between the optimal choices in different scenarios under the framework of cumulative prospect theory （CPT） and expected utility theory （GUT）, respectively. Then, the empirical investigation is conducted to verify the previous theoretical results. The empirical results show that, the individuals＇ decisions change with the scenarios, and they are consistent with the choices under the framework of CP32. In this sense, the transportation administrators should manage and optimize the road resources based on individuals＇ risk preferences.

关 键 词：出行方式选择 累积前景理论 期望效用理论 累积前景值 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]