涉恐人员偷渡活动风险预警模型构建研究  

The Construction of Risk Warning Model for the Organized Smuggling Activities of People Involved in Terrorism

作　　者：李琦[1] 王洪伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]武警学院边防系,河北廊坊065000 [2]武警学院研究生队,河北廊坊065000

出　　处：《武警学院学报》2016年第7期17-21,共5页Journal of the Armed Police Academy

基　　金：国家社科基金军事学项目"国家安全视角下涉恐人员偷渡问题研究"(15GJ004-298)成果

摘　　要：从风险预警角度出发,针对涉恐人员偷渡活动的复杂性、组织严密性、偷渡不成就地"圣战"的突发性等特点,将风险预警思想和理论引入到反恐情报工作之中。基于涉恐人员偷渡活动的行为特点和先期征兆,运用德尔菲法建立系统、科学的风险指标体系和预警模型,对涉恐人员偷渡活动进行全面监控和及时预警,以期在反恐怖工作实践中,辅助决策机构制定前瞻性战略方针,为反恐专业力量开展针对性战术想定提供参考,切实增强对策预案的精度和效度,提高处置打击的准度和力度。In the perspective of risk early warning, and according to the complicated, organized, unexpected characteristics of ＂terrorism related personnel smuggling＇ and theory of risk warning to anti - terrorism intelli sonnel smuggling＂, and the first signs of activity, ing model of terrorism related personnel smuggling ＇ activities, and illegal ＂Jihad＂, this paper introduces the notion gence work. Based on the characteristics of ＂terrorism related perthe paper sets up the scientific risk index system and early - warn- activities by means of the use of the Delphy - system for compre- hensive monitoring and timely warning in anti - terrorist strategy practice, making forward - looking decision - making mechanism for anti -terrorism expertise to carry out targeted tactics, and enhancing the precision and validity of the strategy plan to improve the accuracy and disposal efforts to combat terrorist activities.

关 键 词：涉恐人员 有组织偷渡 风险预警 

分 类 号：D631.46[政治法律—政治学]