台风“海燕”(2013)后期路径折向及降水机制分析  

Analysis of the Later Period Track and Precipitation of Typhoon “Haiyan”(2013)

作　　者：刘维鑫 卢炳夫 魏成谱 苏志刚 黄明旭 

机构地区：[1]解放军95180部队气象台 [2]崇左市气象局 [3]解放军95072部队气象处

出　　处：《气象与减灾研究》2016年第2期107-115,共9页Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:41276033);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(编号:201206068)

摘　　要：利用NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料和常规观测资料,综合分析了环流背景、冷空气活动和地形对台风"海燕"(2013)后期路径和降水变化的影响。结果表明:1)"海燕"后期路径北翘东折的环流背景为500 h Pa高度层西太平洋副热带高压减弱东退,引导气流随着西太平洋副热带高压的变动而发生改变。2)"海燕"东西两侧经向风和南北两侧纬向风的不对称分布是导致台风路径突折的主要原因,此外冷空气和地形的阻挡作用也是使得"海燕"路径突折的重要原因。3)冷空气对降水的影响体现在,前期冷空气侵入到"海燕"西侧,使其获取了斜压能量,有利于台风低压和暴雨的维持,后期冷空气主体侵入到台风低压,使得台风低压斜压性明显减弱,低压环流迅速填塞,降水趋于减弱。4)对于秋、冬季的台风而言,除了要关注西太平洋副热带高压、西风槽等天气系统和地形的影响外,还需注意冷空气南下对台风路径和降水强度的影响,尤其是对于北上的台风而言,冷空气南下可能会导致台风路径突折,降水幅度增加。Based on NCEP 1° × 1° reanalysis data and conventional meteorological observation data,the impacts of circulation background,cold air activities and terrain on the later period track and precipitation of typhoon＂Haiyan＂are analyzed. The conclusions are summarized as follows：1）500 hPa subtropical high retreated eastward is the circulation background of typhoon moving northward and then eastward,and steering flow changes with the change of the subtropical high. 2）The asymmetry of zonal wind and meridional wind may be the important cause for the track changing of＂Haiyan＂,and the blocking effect of cold air and terrain are also important reasons for the track changing of＂Haiyan＂. 3）The impacts of cold air on the precipitation show that at theearly stage,the cold air invades to the west side of low pressure circulation,and transfers baroclinic energy to the low pressure circulation,which is conducive to maintain low pressure circulation and heavy rains,while the main body of cold air invades to the low pressure circulation at the later stage,the low pressure circulation quickly decreases,and rainfall tends to weaken. 4）For typhoon in autumn and winter,in addition to the impact of terrain,subtropical high,westerly trough and other weather systems,the impact of cold air on the path of typhoon and precipitation intensity should be considered,especially to the northward typhoon,the cold air may lead to a sudden change for the path of typhoon,and precipitation increases.

关 键 词：台风 路径 暴雨 冷空气 物理量 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]