1980—2015年内蒙古气象灾害损失特征分析  

Characteristics analysis of meteorological disaster loss in Inner Mongolia between 1980 and 2015

作　　者：刘新[1] 冯晓晶[1] 刘林春 高志国[1] 刘炜[1] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古气候中心,内蒙古呼和浩特010051 [2]内蒙古气象台,内蒙古呼和浩特010051

出　　处：《北方农业学报》2016年第4期94-98,共5页Journal of Northern Agriculture

基　　金：内蒙古自治区气象局青年基金项目(nmqnqx201602)

摘　　要：以1980—2015年气象灾害损失资料为基础数据,利用综合指标法,建立气象灾害损失综合指数,分析内蒙古气象灾害损失的变化特征,并与气象要素进行相关性分析。结果表明:死亡人口对气象灾害综合损失的影响大于直接经济损失;1980—2015年内蒙古气象灾害综合损失总体呈显著增加趋势,1998年之前气象灾害综合损失较小,增加趋势不明显,气象灾害损失中死亡人口占主导地位;1998年之后综合损失显著增加,气象灾害损失中直接经济损失占主导地位;1980—2015年气象灾害损失等级逐年加重,1998年以后气象灾害损失偏重;直接经济损失和气象灾害综合指数均与气温显著相关,死亡人口与降水量显著相关,气温和降水量异常是引发内蒙古极端天气气候事件频发、气象灾害加重的重要原因。Based on the meteorological disaster loss data, a composite index of meteorological disaster losses was estimated by the integration method.Its characteristic and the correlations with temperature and precipitation were analyzed. The results showed that the number of death people caused by meteorological disasters had greater affect to the composite index of meteorological disaster losses than the direct economic losses. The composite index showed a significant increaing trend during 1980—2015. The changing trend of the composite index before the year of 1998 were not pronounced and the number of death people played a primary role in meteorological disaster losses. After that it increased significantly, the primary role in meteorological disaster losses changed to the direct economic losses. The meteorological disaster losses level was yearly increased during 1980—2015 and was more serious after 1998. The direct economic losses and the composite index were significantly associated with temperature, and the correlation between the number of death people and precipitation were significant too. Temperature and precipitation anomalies were the main reason for the extreme weather occurring frequently and the meteorological disaster loss aggravate.

关 键 词：气象灾害损失 综合指数 变化趋势 相关性分析 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]