中国就业变化的因素与潜力分析  

Factors and Potential Analysis of Employment Changes in China

作　　者：滕瑜[1] 李天祥[2] 于之倩[3] 

机构地区：[1]江苏科技大学经济管理学院,江苏镇江212003 [2]南京农业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210095 [3]广州大学经济与统计学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《中国软科学》2016年第7期33-42,共10页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"对外贸易对我国异质劳动力就业的影响效应分析"(项目编号:71303096);"粮价上涨对中国农村家庭微观粮食可获得性的影响及其群体间影响差异研究"(项目编号:71303112);"老龄人口的异质性偏好对中国食物消费趋势变动的影响研究"(项目编号:71203096);江苏省教育厅高校哲社基金"江苏省对外贸易对异质劳动力就业的影响及对策研究"(项目编号:2013SJB790013);江苏科技大学人文社科项目"服务外包对就业及劳动力工资的影响研究"研究成果;"江苏省高校优秀中青年教师和校长境外研修计划";"清华农村研究博士论文奖学金"资助

摘　　要：2008年全球经济危机以来,面对劳动力成本上升、政策调控等一系列不利因素的影响,中国就业形势依然总体良好,就业数量逐年上升。就业增长是经济增长、产业就业吸纳能力变动及产业结构调整三种因素共同作用的结果。本文采用IDA指数分解方法系统测算了上述三种因素对中国就业增长的影响与贡献程度。研究结果表明,中国就业增长主要依赖经济增长的拉动,但近年来产业结构调整对就业增长的正向作用开始显现。同时,通过与发达国家的产业结构对比发现,未来中国产业结构调整仍具有很大的空间,通过产业结构调整增加就业潜力巨大,产业结构调整有可能成为今后推动中国就业新的增长点。Since the global economic crisis in 2008, though facing with rising labor wages, tightening policy constraints and a series of unfavorable factors, China＇ s employment situation has still remained good, with the employment population expanding year by year. Indeed, employment growth is the combined result of three factors, namely economic growth, changes in employment absorption capacity of specific-industry and industrial structure adjustment. In this paper, an Index Decomposition Analysis （IDA） method was employed to estimate the contribution of these three factors to employment growth in China. The results show that China＇ s employment growth had been mainly due to economic growth during the study period, but recently, industrial structure adjustment began to play a more positive role in the process. Moreover, compared with developed countries, it seemed that there is still large space for China＇s industrial restructuring in the future as well as great potential to increase employment. Therefore, industrial structure adjustment might be a new growth point of promoting employment in China in the future.

关 键 词：经济增长 产业结构调整 就业 贡献因素 潜力分析 

分 类 号：F24[经济管理—劳动经济]