不确定性下的有效需求和消费行为  

On Effective Demand and Consumer Behavior under Uncertain Condition

作　　者：王宏杰[1] 佟昕[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学经济学院,辽宁沈阳110036 [2]辽宁经济管理干部学院

出　　处：《河北科技师范学院学报》2016年第2期81-86,共6页Journal of Hebei Normal University of Science & Technology

基　　金：辽宁省社会科学规划基金一般课题(项目编号:L15EJL001);辽宁经济管理干部学院院级青年项目(项目编号:Ljgykt-qn-1602)

摘　　要：消费者为避免不确定性或出于预防性动机,行为上难以将需求转化为"有效需求";生产者行为的刚性使其不能及时形成"有效供给",供需双方形成一种结构性矛盾。通过预防性储蓄理论分析发现,消费者在面临不确定性时会积累预防性储蓄。由此,建议政策操作转向普及科学消费观、扩大社会保障和提高国民收入来减少不确定性,从而使"有效需求"得以消化"有效供给",进而使得扩大内需和供给侧改革取得实效。It is difficult to upgrate ＂general demand＂ to ＂effective demand＂ for consumers under the consider- ation of uncertainty and precautionary motivation. Similarly, producers can＇ t provide the ＂effective supply＂ due to the behavior rigidity. This is a structural contradiction between supply and demand sides. By studying the precautionary savings theory, consumers were usually found to build up precautionary savings under uncer- tainty. Thus, in order to reduce uncertainty, it suggested that the authorities should turn policy operation to popularizing scientific view of consumption, developing social security undertakings and raising the level of na- tional income. Through these measures, the ＂effective demand＂ could absorb ＂effective supply＂, domestic demands expand and supply-side reform achieve successfully.

关 键 词：不确定性 有效需求 消费行为 扩大内需 供给侧改革 

分 类 号：F014.5[经济管理—政治经济学] F014.32