桥梁监测数据的动态线性建模与可靠性预测  

Dynamic Linear Modeling of Bridge Monitored Data and Reliability Prediction

作　　者：樊学平[1,2] 刘月飞[1,2] 吕大刚[3] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学西部灾害与环境力学教育部重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 [2]兰州大学土木工程与力学学院,甘肃兰州730000 [3]哈尔滨工业大学土木工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150090

出　　处：《同济大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第7期1002-1009,共8页Journal of Tongji University:Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51378162);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(lzujbky-2015-28;lzujbky-2015-31)

摘　　要：引入贝叶斯动态线性模型(BDLM),建立桥梁监测应力的状态方程和观测方程,并利用贝叶斯因子监控监测应力.通过监测应力和应力状态的先验信息,对监测应力的状态参数进行贝叶斯后验概率推断,并不断进行"概率预测-修正"递推运算,获得最优监测应力的状态概率估计来预测桥梁的应力.基于贝叶斯动态修正的应力概率模型,建立桥梁结构可靠性的预测公式.最后,通过实例验证了本文所建模型的合理性和适用性.A Bayesian dynamic linear model （BDLM） is introduced, which includes state equation and observation equation of bridge monitoring stress, and the stress is monitored with Bayesian factors. Combining parameters prior information with the early stress monitored data containing noise, the monitored stress state parameters are deduced with Bayesian posterior probability. Optimal stress state estimation uses continuous probability forecast-fixed recursion operator to predict the bridge stress. The prediction formula of bridge reliability is given based on BDLM of bridge stress. Finally, an actual example is provided to demonstrate the applicability and feasibility of the proposed model.

关 键 词：桥梁监测应力 贝叶斯方法 动态线性模型 折扣因子 

分 类 号：TU391[建筑科学—结构工程] TU392.5