金融发展、对外贸易与能源消费——基于ARDL模型的实证研究  

Financial Development,Trade Openness and Energy Consumption——Empirical Study Based on ARDL Model

作　　者：胡宗义[1] 郑瑶[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学金融与统计学院,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《湖南大学学报（社会科学版）》2016年第4期107-113,共7页Journal of Hunan University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(12AJL007);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助项目(NCET-09-0329);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20100161110030);湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(12JJ5038)

摘　　要：利用1980-2013年的样本数据,运用自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)对我国金融发展、对外贸易与能源消费三者间的关系进行实证研究。研究结果表明:金融发展对能源消费具有长期显著的负向效应,能源消费对金融发展的长短期影响显著为负;金融发展对对外贸易的长短期弹性系数是3.1068和0.40871,分别通过1%和10%的显著性检验,对外贸易对金融发展的显著影响只存在于短期关系中;能源消费对对外贸易具有长期显著的促进作用,节能计划的实施,会降低贸易发展水平。基于此,我国应充分发挥金融在经济系统中的作用,在促进对外贸易发展的同时减少能源消费,实现经济社会的可持续发展。Based on the sample data of 1980 to 2013, this paper uses the autoregressive distributed lag （ARDL） model to investigate the relationship between China＇s financial development, trade openness and energy consumption. The results show that the long-term effect of financial development on energy con- sumption is significantly negative, while energy consumption has a negative impact on financial develop- ment both in the long and short term. The long-term and short-term elasticity coefficient of financial devel- opment to trade openness are 3. 1068 and 0. 40871, which are significant at 10% and 1% levels respective- ly, while a significant impact of trade openness on financial development only exists in short-term relation- ship. In addition, energy consumption plays a significant role in promoting trade openness in the long term. The implementation of energy saving plan, will reduce the trade openness. China should give full play to the role of financial development in the economic system, which can reduce energy consumption while promoting trade openness, and achieve sustainable economic and social development.

关 键 词：金融发展 对外贸易 能源消费 ARDL模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]