市场化收购、价格补贴与我国玉米市场调控效率  

Market purchase,price subsidies and regulation efficiency of corn market in China

作　　者：杨桂红[1] 曹先磊[1] 张颖[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2016年第6期54-57,共4页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(11&ZD042);内蒙古扎兰屯市项目(2014HXZXJGXY025)资助

摘　　要：本文运用2000-2015年月度价格统计数据,从玉米价格波动视角出发,利用ARCH类模型实证检验了我国玉米市场的调控效率,并基于市场化收购与价格补贴政策,对未来我国玉米价格可能的变化进行了预测分析。ARCH类模型实证研究表明:近年来,我国玉米市场价格表现出明显的波动集簇性,具有高风险高回报的特征,一定程度上也说明随着国内外玉米市场环境的改变,我国玉米临储政策的调控效果逐渐趋弱。而市场化收购与价格补贴相结合的新机制,对发挥市场调节作用、保障我国粮食安全及降低玉米市场价格波动等方面具有明显的理论优势。最后,基于研究结论,提出了相应的政策建议。Using the monthly price data from 2000 to 2015, the regulation efficiency of corn market in china was empirical inspected by using the ARCH-type models from the perspective of corn price fluctuations. Considered the new mechanism combined with the market purchase and price subsidy, the possible change of corn prices in the future was theoretical analyzed. The study shows that corn reserve policy played a important role in reducing the impact of different attributes ex- ternal information on the price fluctuations. However, the corn price has obvious fluctuations cluster features, and it does not have the characteristic of high risk and high return, which shows that regulating efficiency in the corn markt is relatively low to some extent in term of smooth corn price fluctuations and play to the role of market. On the contrary, this new mechanism has obvious advantage theory in terms of its role in market regulation, safeguard China＇s food security and reduce price fluctuations in corn market, etc. Finally, according to the research conclusion, the paper put forward the corresponding policy advises.

关 键 词：玉米价格 玉米临时收储政策 市场定价 价补分离 ARCH类模型 市场调控效率 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]