工业企业景气指数和预警信号系统构建研究--基于工业景气企业财务调查数据  

Research on the construction of industry enterprise cycle index and the system of monitoring and warning signal

作　　者：吴卫华[1] 王红玲[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行杭州中心支行,浙江杭州310001 [2]中国人民银行句容市支行,江苏句容212499

出　　处：《浙江金融》2016年第6期51-55,共5页Zhejiang Finance

摘　　要：本文通过构建工业企业景气指数和监测预警信号系统,对江苏省工业企业景气状况和未来走势进行了分析和预测。结果表明,先行合成指数自2014年4月份进入下降通道,至2014年底景气动向综合指数图显示预警指数已回落至过冷的"蓝灯区",预警指标信号图显示景气综合分值低位徘徊,各预警指标信号显示"蓝灯",景气指数和监测预警信号系统表明到2015年6月底江苏省工业景气下行压力仍较大,但部分指标已率先回暖预示向好的积极因素正在培育。In this paper, we analyze and forecast the economic situation and the future trend of the industrial enterprises in Jiangsu province by constructing the industry enterprise cycle index and the monitoring and warning signal system. The results show that the first synthetic index has dropped into the downward channel since April 2014,in the end of 2014 the composite cycle index chart shows that early warning index has dropped to the cold ＂blue light district＂ , the early warning indicators signal display the composite score hovering in the low belt,each indicater signal light ＂blue light＂ , this system indicates that the downward pressure of the industrial economy in Jiangsu province is still large by the middle of 2015.But some indicators have been the first to turn warmer indicates positive factors are nurturing.

关 键 词：工业企业 景气指数 预警信号系统 

分 类 号：F832.7[经济管理—金融学]