“污染避难所假说”在中国真的成立吗——基于空间VAR模型的实证检验  

Does Pollution Haven Hypothesis Exist in China——An Empirical Test Based on Spatial Victor Autoregressive Model

作　　者：金春雨[1] 王伟强[2] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心 [2]吉林大学商学院,130012

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2016年第8期108-118,共11页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：吉林大学哲学社会科学研究重大课题培育项目(2015ZDPY09)

摘　　要：本文同时从环境治理效果和环境治理成本角度选取指标刻画环境规制水平,综合考虑变量内生性和空间溢出性问题,以1995-2012年省级面板数据为样本,运用空间VAR模型分别对全国整体以及东中西区域环境规制、FDI和对外贸易之间的关系进行实证检验。结果发现,就全国整体而言,环境规制与FDI呈显著负相关关系,"污染避难所假说"是成立的,并且相邻地区间环境规制行为存在明显的"逐底效应";环境规制效果在我国不同区域具有较强的异质性,在西部地区"污染避难所假说"显著成立,在东部地区却支持"污染光环假说"。This paper provides a spatial vector autoregressive analysis of the interaction between environmental regulations, foreign direct investment and inter- national trade, and takes variable endogeneity and spatial spillover effects into consideration simultaneously based on panel data of 30 provinces from 1992 to 2012 in China. We select two variables as the proxies for environmental regulato- ry stringency from the aspect of environmental regulatory effects and costs, di- vide the sample into east, middle and west three regions and study the heteroge- neity effects of environmental regulations in different regions. The results show that the effect of environmental regulatory is negative, pollution haven hypothesis is established in China as a whole, and the race to the bottom is existed among regional environmental regulations. There is a significant difference of environmen- tal regulations effects in east, middle and west regions. We find evidence of pol- lution haven hypothesis in west regions, but pollution halo hypothesis is estab- lished in east region.

关 键 词：空间VAR模型 环境规制 污染避难所 逐底效应 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]