基于三参数Weibull分布的继电保护风险评估可靠性研究  

Research of risk assessment reliability of relay protection based on three-parameter Weibull distribution

作　　者：周培强[1] 周孟然[2] 谢颖[1] 王萍萍[1] 曹珍贯[2] 罗倩[2] 

机构地区：[1]国网安徽省电力公司淮南供电公司,安徽淮南232001 [2]安徽理工大学电气与信息工程学院,安徽淮南232001

出　　处：《工矿自动化》2016年第8期56-61,共6页Journal Of Mine Automation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51174258)

摘　　要：针对传统电网风险评估及可靠性分析主要集中在继电保护可靠性指标方面,而没有涉及继电保护装置运行中可靠性的变化和面临的实际风险等问题,提出了采用三参数Weibull分布对时变失效率进行估算的方法,建立了基于多重因素下的10状态Markov模型。通过Matlab仿真软件对电网运行与管理数据进行分析处理,得到时变失效率函数模型;结合软、硬件与管理等因素,采用PSS/E软件建立了基于Markov模型的继电保护装置全过程隐性风险的评估体系。实验结果表明,该体系对电网存在的隐患能早发现、早整改,提高了电网的管理水平,实现了电网的安全稳定运行。In view of problems that traditional risk assessment and reliability analysis methods of power grid focused on relay protection reliability indicators and did not involve change of reliability and actual risk in operation of relay protection device,the paper put forward a method that used three-parameter Weibull distribution to estimate time-varying failure rate,and established Markov model with 10 state based on multiple factors.It obtained time-varying failure rate function model through analyzing and processing data of power grid operation and management by Matlab simulation software;in combination with software and hardware and management factors,it also built process hidden risk assessment system of relay protection device based on Markov model by PSS/E software.The experimental results show that the system can early find and rectify hidden danger in power grid,which improves management level of the power grid,and realizes safe and stable operation of the power grid.

关 键 词：继电保护 风险评估 三参数WEIBULL分布 时变失效率 MARKOV模型 

分 类 号：TD611[矿业工程—矿山机电]