特殊负荷对日负荷的相关性分析方法  

Correlation Analysis for Special Load to Daily Load

作　　者：于浩祺 金小明 姚建刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学电气与信息工程学院,长沙410082 [2]南方电网科学研究院,广州510080

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2016年第7期42-46,共5页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

基　　金：南方电网公司科技资助项目(K-ZB2011-033)

摘　　要：针对由于特殊负荷的不确定性导致不准确的日负荷预测,本文提出了一种基于灰色关联分析和模糊推理的相关性分析方法。根据不同特殊负荷对日负荷的影响因素的本质不同,将特殊负荷进行分类,并将特殊负荷的影响因素作为联系特殊负荷与日负荷的中间变量。该方法可以很好地实现特殊负荷对日负荷的相关性分析,进而得到相关性数据,为日负荷预测提供有效的依据。通过对某地区电力部门的历史数据进行验证,证明了该方法的准确性。Considering that uncertain special load leads to the inaccurate forecasting of daily load,this paper presentsa correlation analysis method based on gray correlation analysis and fuzzy reasoning.According to the fact that different special loads have different influencing factors for daily load,the special loads are divided into several categories,and the influencing factors are determined as the intermediate variables between special loads and daily load.Thismethod can achieve the correlation analysis for special load to daily load,and then obtain the correlation data whichcan provide an effective basis for daily load forecasting. Based on the verification of the historical data of power sector incertain region,the accuracy of the proposed method is proved.

关 键 词：特殊负荷 日负荷 相关性分析 灰色关联分析 模糊推理法 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]