我国棉花总产量波动原因分析  

Analyze the fluctuations of total cotton production in China

作　　者：陆江林[1] 石磊[1] 张玉同[1] 

机构地区：[1]农业部南京农业机械化研究所,南京市210014

出　　处：《中国农机化学报》2016年第8期248-251,共4页Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization

基　　金：华北棉区棉花全程机械化关键技术及其农艺技术研究与示范(201203057)

摘　　要：相关系数分析表明:我国棉花种植面积极显著影响棉花总产;科技进步(年)与棉花单产显著影响棉花总产;时滞一年的棉花价格对棉花总产有一定的影响,但不显著。通径系数分析表明:棉花种植面积和棉花单产对棉花总产主要起直接作用,直接通径系数分别为0.784050、0.795194;通过提升棉花单产,科技进步(年)和时滞一年棉花价格主要对棉花总产起间接作用,间接通径系数分别为0.693865、0.471876;其他通径系数均很低(绝对值<0.1)。并以此结论,提出促进我国棉花生产的三条对策。Correlation coefficient analysis showed a very significant impact on China＇s cotton acreage to total cotton production,scientific and technological progress（years）and cotton yield significantly affect total cotton production,delay-year cotton prices have an impact on the total cotton production,but not significantly.The path coefficient analysis showed that the China＇s cotton acreage and cotton yields on total cotton production mainly play a direct role,direct path coefficients were 0.784 050,0.795 194respectively;cotton yields by enhancing scientific and technological progress（years）and delay-year cotton prices mainly from total cotton production indirect effects,indirect path coefficients were 0.693 865,0.471 876respectively;other path coefficients were very low（absolute value0.1）.And three countermeasures on the promotion of China＇s cotton production have been proposed on these conclusions.

关 键 词：棉花 种植面积 单产 价格 相关系数 通径系数 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F326.12