中国杠杆率悖论——兼论货币政策“稳增长”和“降杠杆”真的两难吗  

China's Leverage Paradox——Is it Really Impossible for Monetary Polices to Cut Down Leverage While Maintaining Economic Growth?

作　　者：刘晓光[1] 张杰平[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院 [2]北京大学国家发展研究院

出　　处：《财贸经济》2016年第8期5-19,共15页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"从‘大缓和’到‘大衰退’的西方宏观经济学理论与政策的大反思"(14ZDB123);马克思主义理论研究和建设工程重大项目"防范和化解经济金融风险"(2015MZD033);北京市社会科学基金重点项目"开放视角下的中国货币政策框架的重构"(14JGA002)

摘　　要：近年来,为了防控金融风险,"降杠杆"的呼声此起彼伏。在经济增速放缓的背景下,货币政策当局一度陷入"稳增长"与"降杠杆"的两难境地,并总体上实施了"名松实紧"的货币政策。然而,随着货币增长率放缓,中国经济杠杆率却越降越高,堪称"杠杆率悖论"。本文试图利用修正的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型来分析中国货币供应量和杠杆率之间的关系,厘清中国杠杆率悖论背后的作用机制。结果显示,降低货币供应量会带来投资和消费增长的下滑,进而带来产出更大幅度下降,最后反而会提高经济杠杆率。具体地,在货币增速受到负向冲击下,货币供应量每下降0.08个百分点,将带动投资和产出分别下降0.38个和0.18个百分点,使得杠杆率上升0.09个百分点。在存在金融加速器效应的情况下,这一影响机制还会得到进一步加强,货币供应量比基准每下降0.08个百分点,将带动投资和产出分别下降0.59个和0.25个百分点,使得杠杆率上升0.14个百分点。因此,货币政策"稳增长"和"降杠杆"并非两难选择,而是具有一致性,简单采用紧缩性货币政策来降杠杆的做法很可能适得其反。In recent years, China＇s economic growth has been slowing down along with a sharp rise in leverage. While accommodative monetary policies are still needed to maintain economy growth, increasing concerns for financial stability risk calls for cutting down the leverage level, leaving the authorities be trapped in dilemma. As a result, tight monetary policy is implemented in the name of a loose stance. Since the third quarter of 2009, growth rate of M2has dropped from 29.8% to 9.9% in the first quarter of 2015. However, the drop of M2 growth turns out to a higher lever leverage as the ratio of M2 to GDP increases from 1.79 in 2009 to 1.93 in 2014, which is a＂Chinese leverage paradox＂. This paper attempts to clarify the mechanism of leverage paradox in China, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model （DSGE） to illustrate the relationship between money supply and leverage. The results show that reducing the money supply will increase the leverage, as it will bring more substantial decline in investment and consumption growth, and thus bring greater decline in output decline, resulting in the leverage. Specifically, a decrease of money supply by 0. 08 percentage points will drive down investment and output by 0.38 and 0. 18 percentage points respectively, making the leverage ratio increase by 0.09 percentage points. Moreover, in the circumstance of Financial Accelerator Effect, this mechanism is further strengthened, as a decrease of money supply by 0.08 percentage points will drive down investment and output by 0.59 and 0. 25 percentage points respectively, making the leverage ratio increase by 0.14 percentage points. Therefore, a tight monetary policy is not likely to achieve the goal of deleveraging. On the contrary, more accommodative monetary policies are more likely to promote higher growth and lower leverage.

关 键 词：中国杠杆率 货币供应量 金融加速器 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]