免费产品的需求替代分析--以奇虎360／腾讯案为例  

The Analysis of Demand Substitution on Free:The Case of Qihu 360 V.Tencent

作　　者：张昕竹[1] 占佳[2] 马源[3] 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学产业经济研究院,330013 [2]江西财经大学现代经济管理学院,330013 [3]工业和信息化部电信研究院政策与经济研究所,100804

出　　处：《财贸经济》2016年第8期144-160,共17页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：2015年江西省教育厅科技项目“互联网产业相关市场界定研究”(GJJ151604)

摘　　要：以互联网为代表的很多产业具有基于免费模式的双边市场特征,这给基于传统价格理论和单边市场逻辑的反垄断经济分析,特别是SSNIP的使用带来极大的挑战,同时也使奇虎360/腾讯案的反垄断审查和判决充满了争议。本文采用结构计量方法,利用相关优化条件和Lerner指数构造需求弹性结构方程,并设定嵌套选择模型代表不同即时通讯和微博产品的替代关系。我们利用艾瑞互联网产品用户使用数据进行了实证估计,得到了即时通讯和微博产品的自弹性、交叉弹性和转移率等参数。估计结果显示,即时通讯产品与微博产品不在同一相关市场内,从而为本案的法院判决提供了关键证据。本文为免费产品和(或)具有双边市场特征的需求替代分析和相关市场界定提供了一个可供借鉴的分析框架,同时也证明了SSNIP方法具有普适性。Some industries, representative of the Internet, have the two-sided market characteristics with some service offerings for free. It brings great challenges to the traditional antitrust economic analysis, especially the use of SSNIP, which is based on price theory and one-sided market logic. It also makes the review and verdict of the Qihu 360 V. Tencent case full of controversies. By developing structural econometric model, this paper specifies a Nested Logit model to represent the substitution pattern between instant messaging services and micro-blog products. We then construct the demand elasticity expressions by using optimization conditions and Lerner index. Using the Internet usage data of iReseareh, we estimate own elasticity, cross elasticity and diversion rate of instant messaging and micro- blog products. We find that instant messaging services and micro-blog products are not in the same relevant market, and thus provide the key evidence supporting the court decision of the case. This paper provides a framework for demand substitution analysis and relevant market definition for free products in two-sided markets. The result implies that SSNIP test is universally applicable.

关 键 词：反垄断 需求替代分析 免费产品 双边市场 嵌套选择模型 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济]