基于人口空间分布的城镇化发展趋势研究  

Urbanization Trend Based on Population Spatial Distribution in China

作　　者：张耀军[1] 荆文锴 李硕[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心,北京100872 [2]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《河南社会科学》2016年第6期108-113,124,共6页Henan Social Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71373275);国家自然基金项目(71541032);中国人民大学科学研究基金项目(12XNI002)

摘　　要：人口的流动迁移不仅决定着我国新型城镇化的发展进程,也改变了我国人口的地域分布。借助Arc GIS地理空间软件研究发现,我国大城市的人口集聚效应明显,人口由中西部向东部地区大量迁移,导致城镇化率由东向西阶梯下降,而社会抚养比由东向西递增。利用Spectrum人口预测软件对2030年各城市的人口规模和城镇化水平进行了预测,结果显示,未来我国各地区的城镇化率普遍上升;大城市的人口集聚效应将更加突出,东部地区的社会抚养负担将随着人口的迁入而继续减轻。为使人口迁移的方向、空间分布与区域发展更好地相适应,可以通过合理控制大城市人口增速、加强对周边城市的辐射作用,加快发展中小城市、提高对周边人口的吸引力,以及强化中部地区的自身条件来实现。Population migration determines the process of urbanization in China, and also changespopulation distribution. Based on the Fifth Population Census data, using Arc GIS software, this paperfirstly analyzes the spatial pattern of population and its changing tendency in 2010 at the city level. Theresults show that large cities have obvious advantages on population gathering. There are large-scalepopulation flowing from central and western regions to eastern region, so urbanization rate decreases fromeast to west, while social supporting rate increases from east to west. Secondly, this paper based on theSixth Population Census data, using spectrum software, forecasts the size and structure of population in 2030 at the city level. The findings reveal that urbanization rate will go up widely in different regions inthe future and the effect of population agglomeration in large cities will be more prominent. The socialsupporting rate of eastern region will continue to reduce because of the immigration of labor. To solve theproblems in the process of urbanization in China, the study concludes with corresponding policysuggestions.

关 键 词：人口分布 人口迁移 城镇化 趋势 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]