中国经济发达地区能否率先实现节能减排目标——以江苏省为例  

Could the Developed Regions of Economy in China Take the Lead in Achieving the Target of Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction?——A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

作　　者：尹敬东[1] 王菲[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学经济学院,江苏南京210023 [2]国金证券股份有限公司,上海200120

出　　处：《南京财经大学学报》2016年第3期18-25,共8页Journal of Nanjing University of Finance and Economics

基　　金："江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目"(PAPD);"南京财经大学预研项目"(项目编号:YJDXW10001)资助

摘　　要：中国经济发达地区能否率先实现节能减排目标,对中国实现节能减排的目标具有重要意义,论文以东部经济发达的省份江苏省为例,通过建立LEAP—Jiangsu模型,设置基准情景和政策模拟情景,并根据江苏省的实际情况设置情景参数,测算了2015—2050年江苏省能源需求量和碳排放。结论是,江苏在节能减排方面的贡献与全国节能减排的动态趋势基本一致,难以做到率先达标。综合情景下江苏省能源需求总量在2040年达到峰值,消耗7.1亿吨标准煤,比基准情景同比减少6.275亿吨;CO_2排放量呈现先增长后下降的趋势,在2030年达到峰值,为0.78亿吨,比基准情景下的排放量同比减少0.5亿吨。It is essential for China to achieve the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction that the developed regions achieve it first. The authors take Jiangsu Province as an example of developed province and establish the model of LEAP-Jiangsu based on the baseline scenario and policy simulation. According to the actual situation,the authors calculate the energy demand and CO_2 emission of Jiangsu from 2015 to 2050. The conclusion is that Jiangsu Province is hardly an example in terms of energy conservation and emission reduction. In the comprehensive scenario,the sum of the total energy demand of Jiangsu Province is expected to reach the peak in 2040,which equals to the consumption of 710 million tons of standard coal,627. 5million less than in the baseline scenario; carbon emissions will peak in 2030 at 78 million tons,50 million tons less than in the baseline scenario.

关 键 词：LEAP模型 情景分析 节能减排 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]