中国天然气价格管制的碳排放及经济影响——基于非完全竞争CGE模型的模拟研究  

Carbon emissions and economic impacts of natural gas price regulation in China:based on the incomplete competition CGE model

作　　者：张希栋[1,2] 娄峰[3] 张晓[3] 

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院生态与可持续发展研究所,上海200020 [2]中国社会科学院研究生院,北京102488 [3]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2016年第7期76-84,共9页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：中国社会科学院哲学社会科学创新工程项目"绿色发展战略与政策模拟研究"(批准号:JJ06-2015-SCX-0016)

摘　　要：中国天然气产业的最大特点是垄断程度较强,政府对天然气产业的各个环节均存在价格管制。鉴于此,本文通过构建CGE模型以期全面量化分析政府对天然气产业价格管制政策变动产生的影响,从而为政府制定决策提供可供借鉴的依据。与以往的研究不同,本文构建的静态CGE模型,不仅刻画了天然气产业非完全竞争的市场结构还刻画了政府对天然气产业的价格管制行为。运用该模型,本文分别从消费侧以及供应侧的角度模拟了政府对天然气产业价格管制政策变动对我国碳排放及经济的影响,并且从经济结构以及能源消费结构的角度进一步分析了天然气价格管制政策变动的二氧化碳排放机制。模拟结果表明:1消费侧价格管制。提高天然气价格能够通过产业结构调整以及能源消费结构调整降低经济主体对天然气的消费进而降低二氧化碳的排放,同时由于天然气市场规模的缩小导致天然气产业的超额利润率有所下降。提高天然气价格提高了居民消费价格指数(CPI),降低了实际GDP以及居民福利水平。降低天然气价格对二氧化碳排放的影响、传导机制以及经济影响与提高天然气价格产生的影响类似,但是作用效果基本上相反。2供应侧价格管制。取消天然气供应侧价格管制能够通过优化要素配置促进实际GDP的增长、居民福利水平的改善并且降低居民消费价格指数(CPI),在收入效应的作用下不仅提高了经济主体对天然气的消费还提高了对能源总量的消费,从而增加了二氧化碳排放,同时由于天然气市场规模的扩大促进了天然气产业超额利润率的增长。因此,应该逐渐建立完善的天然气价格管理体制,确保天然气资源的有效利用;对天然气产业超额利润率进行管控,避免产生较大的负面收入分配效应;逐步取消天然气供应侧的价格管制,打破行政垄断,引入市场竞争机制,推�The most significant characteristic of China＇s natural gas industry is that the degree of monopoly is strong and price regulations exist in all aspects of the natural gas industry. In view of this, this paper constructs a CGE model which gives a comprehensively quantitative analysis for the impact of government＇s price regulation policies on natural gas industry, so as to provide reference basis for government policy design. Different from previous studies, the static CGE model constructed in this paper, can not only describe the natural gas industry in the imperfect competitive market structure, but also depict the behavior of government price regulation on natural gas industry. By applying this model, it simulates the impact of changes in government price regulation policy of natural gas industry on carbon emissions and economy from both the perspective of the consumer side and the supply side, and analyzes the carbon dioxide emission mechanism of the natural gas price regulation policy from the perspective of the economic structure and energy consumption structure. Simulation results can be summarized as follows. First, for price regulation of the consumption side, improving the price of natural gas can reduce natural gas consumption and reduce carbon dioxide emissions, through the adjustment of industrial structure and energy consumption structure. Meantime, because of smaller market size of the natural gas industry, excess profits ratio will decrease. Raising the natural gas prices will increase the consumer price index （ CPI）, and decrease the actual GDP and the welfare of the residents. The effects of reducing the price of natural gas on carbon dioxide emissions, the transmission mechanism and economy are similar but basically in the opposite way. Second, for price regulation on the supply side, removing the price regulation on natural gas supply side can improve factor redistribution, promote real GDP growth, improve the welfare of the residents and reduce the consumer price index （CPI）. Consi

关 键 词：天然气 非完全竞争 价格管制 市场结构 CGE模型 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]