应急响应程序时效性评估函数构造与性质分析  

Timeliness assessment function construction and property analysis of emergency response procedures

作　　者：李加莲[1] 池宏[1] 许保光[1] 高敏刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2016年第8期2056-2067,共12页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金(Y301101801);中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所重大研究任务项目(Y201161Z03);新疆维吾尔自治区科技厅科技支疆项目(201191171);国家自然科学基金(71401162)~~

摘　　要：应急响应程序是应急预案中的核心部分,应急响应程序时效性评估是其在线动态调整的重要基础,评估关键在于应急响应程序中一环扣一环影响关系的刻画,才能使得评估更贴近实际,进而对响应程序和应急准备的改进更具针对性,更快速和有效.针对多指标综合评估方法无法反映应急响应程序中行动之间逻辑顺序和影响关系的问题,本文基于响应程序,通过构造符合定性认识函数及函数叠加和组合等方法,构造了响应程序时效性与其影响要素关系的函数;然后对所构造函数进行了最优性分析,该结果的进一步推广可为资源布局提供借鉴;最后通过矿井透水事故算例,时效性评估函数与机理计算所得结果的偏差分析,表明可用时效性评估函数做最优性估计.Emergency response procedure is the core part of emergency plan. Emergency response proce- dure timeliness assessment is an important basis for its online dynamic adjustment. The key is to express influence relations in the emergency response procedure, in order to make the assessment more close to reality, the improvement of emergency preparedness and response procedure more targeted, quickly and efficiently. Considering the problem that nmlti-index comprehensive assessment method cannot reflect the logic sequencing and influence relation between the actions in the emergency response procedures, a func- tion reflecting the relationship between emergency procedures＇ timeliness and their influencing factors was built through the qualitative perception function construction, function superposition and combination, and based on the response procedures. Then, this paper conducts the optimal analysis of the function constructed. The further promotion of the result could offer references to the resource allocation. At last, the variance analysis of the calculation result obtained through the timeliness assessment function and mechanism, and the mine water inrush accident was conducted to show that timeliness assessment function can be used for optimal estimation.

关 键 词：应急预案 应急响应程序 时效性评估 评估函数 矿井透水事故 

分 类 号：C93-0[经济管理—管理学] C934