基于IOWA的中国海洋生物医药业组合预测模型的应用研究  

Applied Research on Combined Forecasting Model of China′s Marine Biomedicine Industries Based on Induced Ordered Weighted Averaging Operators

作　　者：郑莉[1] 张玉洁[1] 李琳琳[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋信息中心,天津300171

出　　处：《海洋经济》2016年第1期38-45,共8页Marine Economy

摘　　要：基于诱导有序加权平均算子的组合预测方法是近年来发展起来的具有广泛应用的预测模型。首先采用指数平滑模型、ARIMA模型及多元回归模型建立了中国海洋生物医药业增加值的单项预测模型;随后引进诱导有序加权平均(IOWA)算子的概念,建立了海洋生物医药业增加值的组合预测模型,实证结果表明组合模型能有效提高预测精度;最后利用组合模型对"十三五"期间中国海洋生物医药业发展趋势进行了预测分析。The method of combination forecasting based on the induced ordered weighted averaging operator has been developed in recent years and used in a wide range of applications. Firstly, we respectively make use of exponential smoothing model, ARIMA model and multiple regression to construct models of added value of China＇s marine biomedicine industry. Secondly, by introducing the concept of induced ordered weighted averaging operator, we construct the combination forecasting model of added value of marine biomedicine industry. The empirical results show that the combined forecasting model can effectively improve the prediction accuracy. Finally, we predict the development trend of China＇s marine biomedicine industry during the 13th Five-Year Plan period by using the above combination forecasting model.

关 键 词：海洋生物医药业 诱导有序加权平均算子 组合预测 海洋经济 海洋产业 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]