耕地质量监测预警研究进展  

Research progress of cultivated land quality monitoring and early warning

作　　者：毛雪[1] 马友华[2] 朱海娣[1] 尹国庆[1] 王强[2] 王静[1] 张贝尔[3] 

机构地区：[1]安徽农业大学经济管理学院,合肥230036 [2]安徽农业大学资源与环境学院,合肥230036 [3]安徽省经济研究院,合肥230000

出　　处：《国土与自然资源研究》2016年第3期76-80,共5页Territory & Natural Resources Study

基　　金：安徽省发改委"安徽省资源环境承载力预警研究"

摘　　要：耕地质量是人类社会赖以生存与发展的物质基础,是农业发展的基本生产资料。为发挥监测预警体系在耕地质量建设中的主体作用,实现耕地质量的可持续利用,本文采用文献综述法和系统分析法综述了耕地质量监测和预警体系在国内外的研究进展,并着重对时间序列分析模型、灰色预测模型和回归分析模型三种耕地质量预警模型进行阐述。耕地质量监测预警体系具有实时、动态、全方位的监测与预警功能,对监测预警指标体系、方法、周期、模型和理论实践探究还需要进一步完善,同时还需要借助应用大数据,以期为耕地质量精准化监测预警提供实时的数据及模型支持服务。Cultivated land quality is the material foundation for the survival and development of human society, is the basic means of production of agricultural development. To play the main role in eultivated land quality monitoring and early warning system construction and realize the sustainable use of cultivated land quality, this paper adopts literature review method and system analysis method to review the cultivated land quality monitoring and early warning system＇s research progress at home and abroad, and emphatically analysis three kinds of cultivated land quality early-waming models which is the time series model, the grey predietion model and regression analysis model. Cultivated land quality monitoring and early warning system with real-time, dynamic and comprehensive monitoring and early warning function still need further perfect in monitoring and early warning index system, method, cycle, model and theory practice exploration. In order to provide real-time data monitoring and early warning model of support services for accurate ealtivated land quality, it＇s also need to apply in large datas.

关 键 词：耕地质量 监测 预警 模型 大数据 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]