投资项目决策系统演化机理及仿真研究  

Research on the Evolution Mechanism and Simulation of Investment Project Decision System

作　　者：刘芳霜 张高煜[1] 孙雯婷[1] 李芸[1] 曹波[1] 毛哲煜 

机构地区：[1]上海金融学院,上海201209

出　　处：《上海金融学院学报》2016年第3期5-15,共11页Journal of Shanhai Finance University

基　　金：2015年上海大学生创新创业项目<投资项目决策系统演化机理及其仿真研究>(编号201511639030)支持

摘　　要：本文通过研究政府政策对投资项目的影响,探求决策系统演化的内外动因,建立适合投资项目决策模拟的数学模型,实现了决策系统在Net Logo仿真平台上的实验仿真,并预测出投资项目实施一段时间后运营状态及收益的变化。通过量化政府政策对投资项目的影响,以期为投资项目决策的科学化、合理化提供新的思路。This p aper, with the investigation about the influence of policies to investment project, seeks for the internal and external motivation of evolution of the decision-making system, and finally establishes a mathematical model which suits for decision-simulation of particular investment project. This model is able to realize a decision system＇s experimental simulation in Net Logo, including the estimation about changes of the operational status and the income in a particular period of time after an investment project is implemented. With quantifying the influence of policy on investment projects, it may provide a new method to rationalize the investment-project decision and make it more scientific.

关 键 词：多智能体仿真 政府政策 项目投资 状态预测 

分 类 号：F830.92[经济管理—金融学]