城乡客运一体化需求预测的Grey-Markov二次修正模型  

Second Improved Grey-Markov Model for Integrated Passenger Transportation Demand Forecasting in the Urban and Rural Areas

作　　者：苑少伟 胡宝雨[2] 

机构地区：[1]广州市交通规划研究院,广州510230 [2]哈尔滨工业大学交通科学与工程学院,哈尔滨150090

出　　处：《交通与运输》2016年第A01期42-46,共5页Traffic & Transportation

摘　　要：为准确地预测城乡客运一体化需求,本文在结合灰色预测和马尔科夫预测理论基础上对Grey-Markov模型提出了二次修正,即利用灰色波动多项式替代GM(1,1)传统模型中的指数型曲线,采用滑动转移概率矩阵修正Markov传统链,然后通过线性加权求和的方法获取最终的预测结果。最后,利用西部某地区城乡旅客运输总量的调研数据进行实例研究,综合分析最大相对误差、平均相对误差、相对残差平方和等因素,以及对比指数平滑法、回归分析法预测误差情况,结果表明Grey-Markov二次修正模型能够更好地预测城乡客运一体化需求状况。In order to accurately forecast integrated passenger transportation demand in the urban and rural areas, the second improved Grey Markov model is proposed combined grey forecasting with Markov forecasting theory in the paper, replacing exponential curve in traditional grey model by grey wave polynomial and improving the traditional Markov chain with sliding transition probability matrix, then the final forecasting results are achieved by linear weighted sum. Finally, it researches survey data about total passenger traffic volume in the west urban and rural areas as a case study. Results show that second improved Grey-Markov Model is able to better forecast integrated passenger transportation demand conditions after comprehensively analyzing the maximum relative error, the average relative error and the relative residual sum of squares and comparing with exponential smoothing model and regression analysis.

关 键 词：交通工程 城乡客运一体化 对比分析法 Grey-Markov二次修正模型 需求预测 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]